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Manila BAY - Will it become the Tourist & Financial Center?


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 11:46 AM

Manila BAY - Will it become the Tourist & Financial Center?

 

Some think so - But various embedded interests will not make an easy transition.

 

blvd-2000-land-use-plan.jpg

 

Original Land Use plan may be expanded in several possible ways

 

Location-Map.jpg

 

Some new plans may be too ambitious... new visions keep getting announced, while the market waits to see how M-Bay will absorb a +188%

growth in Condos other the next 3-4 years

 

Manila Bay's Entertainment City / MOA already has casinos and projects racing towards completion - and some want to add more, like Solar City

 

The Future City Masterplan of Mall of Asia Complex and Manila Bay

 

ASIA'S FUTURE CITIES: A fight for the sunset as opposition surrounds Manila Bay "Solar City" project

hqdefault.jpg : Solar City would stick out into Manila Bay

 

 
Manila Bay is a special place for many Manilans but new developments are still being planned

 

MANILA: Watching a red sun dip below the horizon on Manila Bay is something special for many Filipinos.

Amid a fast-developing city, it is a point of nostalgia. It embodies memory and remains a daily reflection of warmth.

 

But the future view is going to be radically different.

From the water, new land will soon be forged for an ambitious 148-hectare reclamation project that will see a metropolis rise out of the bay and tower over the former “Pearl of the Orient”.

 

solar-city-6-data.jpg : Solar City image

Solar City plans promise striking and ambitious architecture.

 

With a nod to the iconic sunset, the development named Solar City is projected as visionary, inspired, even revolutionary. Manila, the developers say, will finally have something iconic.

It promises to combine residential, tourism and business infrastructure, notably including an international cruise ship terminal, vast green space and a monorail transport system designed to improve interconnectivity with the rest of the city.

Manila currently has no dedicated finance area – with surrounding cities like Makati and Tagiug now the centres where money flows instead. Solar City aims to become a new hub for high flyers while also providing jobs to hundreds of thousands of people.


“Solar City, the way we envision it, will be a six-star development,” said Wilson Tieng, president of Manila Goldcoast Development Corporation (MGDC), the group behind the project.

“It’s been a 25 year journey for us and it’s only just starting.”

Solar City, in its various forms, has been stalled for a generation – MGDC first won the contract back in 1991 – due to various protests over environmental concerns.

But with the support of powerful figures at local and national levels of government, there appears no holding it back any further.

solar-city-2-data.jpg

Manila City Mayor Joseph Estrada, in support of the project, has said he wants to bring “untold economic benefits” to the city by tapping the billions of pesos of tax revenue expected to be raised in the coming decades. Meantime, President Rodrigo Duterte’s backing was seen as the thrust that finally gave Solar City the green light.FIshermen continue to ply their trade where the reclamation project is scheduled to imminently begin. (Photo: Jack Board)

“It shows the vision now of the new government at looking at the engines for higher growth,” said Edmundo Lim, Vice Chairman of MGDC and the man leading the push for the development since its inception.

“The 25 years have not all been wasted. Since we started this project a lot of new developments, new technologies and new ideas have come about. It could be a blessing that we were delayed so long,” he said.

solar-city-7-data.jpg

Indeed, the proposed technology fitted to the new city is slated as world best. Using Singapore as an inspiration, Solar City plans to incorporate “enviable” innovative forms of renewable energy, waste water recycling, rain water collection, waste disposal and sea protection systems.The project is forecast to be completed within ten years.

An urban aquaculture centre and growing rice terraces within the city are also parts of the vision. “We owe it to the world for all of the new technologies and the new developments from which we can step up from.” Lim said.

“We are building for the future generations, it’s not enough today to just build a city, the buildings and roads and parks.

“We have to look at the effects of global warming, the effects of bigger population, the effects of waste disposal systems, so all of this has been taken into consideration.”

Yet, despite these promises, the entire concept has attracted a consistent chorus of opposition, from environmentalists to fisher folk to urban planners.

==

> More: http://www.channelne...2.html?cid=FBia


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 04 April 2017 - 11:12 AM

EXCERPT from the Bubble thread

========

 

I am beginning to think that the BIGGEST BUST will come in the Manila bay area (and maybe small pockets like Century city.)

Even without the extra supply of visionary projects like Solar City

 

In Manila Bay, I think you will find a conjunction of these three negative factors:

Huge incoming supply, lower quality developers offering aggressive finance, and (maybe) low quality buyers availing big balloons.

 

The Supply increases for M-Bay are pretty shocking:

-

UNITS---- : --Stock-- : Estimated completions--------- : Next3yr : + Pct. :
Location: End 2016 : -2017- + pct.  : -2018 : -2019 : End2019
BGC / Fort  : 24,275 // 8,566: +35.3% : 3,858 : 3,022 /  39,721 : + 63.6%
Makati CBD: 21,633 // 4,784: +22.1% : 1,072 : 0,598 /  28,087 : + 29.8%
Ortigas -----: 16,250 // 1,489: +9.16% : 0,782 : 0,570 /  19,091 : + 17.5%
Manila Bay:   8,864 // 5,507: +62.1% : 8,531 : 2,614 /  25,516 : + 188.%
Rockwell--- :   4,159 // 0,346: +8.32% : 0,492 : 0,269 /    5,266 : + 26.6%
=========
Top5 Areas : 75,181 / 20,694: +27.5%: 14,735: 7,073/ 117,683: + 56.5%
Other GrM. : 15,603 //  2,198: +14.1%:   0,824: 0,632 / 19,257 : + 23.4%
Gtr. Manila : 90,784 / 22,890: +25.2%: 15,559: 7,705/ 136,940: + 50.0%
 
BTW: the stock market does not seem to be buying into the Bullishness we are hearing
from property agents and the developers about higher property prices. I wonder why?

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 23 April 2017 - 03:50 AM

(Manila Bay developments were a "bet" on infrastructure improvements):

 

The Beginning of “The Glory Age of Infrastructure”

 

M E T R O   M A N I L A   M A R K E T V I E W -  Q3-2016 CBRE Research

New expressway connecting Terminals 1 and 2 of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) to the Entertainment City.

With the new expressway open to all motorists, the travel time from the airport terminals to the different hotels and casinos in the area was substantially decreased.
The new infrastructure will allegedly benefit the hospitality sector as added convenience attracts more tourist visits subsequently improving revenues of hotels in the Bay Area. Location and accessibility are two of the most important factors influencing real estate investment decisions and tourism activities.
This fact establishes the critical part that transport infrastructure plays in the determination of the next best location for property investment and development. The NAIA expressway’s lessening traffic congestion in surrounding cities will increase the desirability of investing in the southern Metro Manila area. Wanting to partake of the pie, major developers have been shifting to the Bay Area not only in terms of residential projects but commercial and office developments as well.

Aside from the high supply of land for development, lined-up infrastructure projects increase the potential of the area thus drawing real estate investments across all sectors

Ayala Land, Inc. (ALI) plans to open a new mall within the Entertainment City next year.
The said Ayala mall will have an approximate area of 600,000 square meters, making it larger than SM Mall of Asia.
Furthermore, ALI intends to develop a Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) building and a 12-storey hotel within the mall complex.
The Bay Area is at present regarded as one of the biggest contributors to the Business Process Outsourcing Boom in the Philippines.
Visa, Inc. has recently opened a new BPO hub in Bay City.

The hub occupies a 6,300-square-meter...

==

> Q3-2016 : http://www.cbre.com....Market-View.pdf

 

This video shows the excitement

 

The Future City Masterplan of Mall of Asia Complex and Manila Bay Area

Published on Aug 15, 2016

Start investing now in your own Condominium Rental Property and earn a PASSIVE income for you in years to come. We are offering very affordable units with zero interest down payment in Prime locations all over Metro Manila.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 23 April 2017 - 04:14 AM

Another possible (but unlikely?) dream: the Manila "Bay City of Pearl"

 

15491412_the-future-of-manila-watch-vide

 

Future of Philippines - Bay City of Manila

April 22, 2017
 

"may not happen"

 

Among the evidence that the country is developing economically is the presence of technology, high-rise establishments, advanced and modernized equipment especially in the field of medication, agriculture, labor and etc.

 

But how far this improvement will go?

A Filipino-Chinese conglomerate is said to begin an extensive reclamation project that will give rise to the “most integrated central business district” in the heart of Manila, “The New Manila Bay City of Pearl.”

Watch the video below.

If this project will push through, it would open a gateway to investors.

The project will also open lots of job opportunities particularly in marketing, construction, business, and to name a few.

While some are overwhelmed by the so-called development that the country may take, others pronounced that this might not happen.

==

> http://www.notey.com...f-pearl”.html


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 09:44 PM

http://www.entrepren...0170807?ref=tag

 

An interesting article about the hotel 101 project in the Bay Area. (A project that I also investigated and looked into at that time)

The article mentions that resale units are now close to PHP4,000,000,

while the launch price was PHP3,100,000 I believe. Each unit is about 21 square meters I believe, so that translates into around

slightly less than PHP200,000 per square meter. For a condotel, i believe it usually costs around 10 to 15pct more than a regular condo unit.

Secondary market prices for all the SMDC units in this erea, I believe to be around PHP170,000 to PHP180,000 per square meter.

 

So this is another case where early investors did the right thing, because today buyers in the secondary market have to pay

a higher price than during the launch phase.



#6 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 08 August 2017 - 10:35 PM

http://filipinohomes...ing-properties/

 

Another article about the pros and cons of buying preselling properties.

Well the early investors in this Hotel 101 project appear to have done well

but that is not always the case.

 

I would also say that the early investors in DMCI Flair/Sheridan appear to have done well,

but whether the early investors in DMCI Kai Garden will do as well remains to be seen.

They are paying PHP80,000 to close to PHP100,000 (for studio units I believe) per square meter

so for them there is (far) more risk.

 

The planting of Japanese trees on the rooftop and the addition of a Japanese style Garden in this project

does not justify a 30-40pct price increase compared with the earlier DMCI projects in that neigborhoud.



#7 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2017 - 05:53 AM

http://filipinohomes...ing-properties/

 

Another article about the pros and cons of buying preselling properties.

Well the early investors in this Hotel 101 project appear to have done well

but that is not always the case.

 

I would also say that the early investors in DMCI Flair/Sheridan appear to have done well,

but whether the early investors in DMCI Kai Garden will do as well remains to be seen.

They are paying PHP80,000 to close to PHP100,000 (for studio units I believe) per square meter

so for them there is (far) more risk.

 

I like DMCI Flair  because of:

+ Its lower price, and

+ good location very near BONI Station on the MRT

 

Few DMCI projects are so close to public transport

 

I see Transport in the Manila Bay area being a problem, unless you work there


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 05:12 PM

Peter from the Propertyclub has a new video about this Manila bay condo,

called Admiral Baysuites, -- definitely one of the landmarks over there.

He really loves the Bay Area as most of his videos are all about this area.

 



#9 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 15 August 2017 - 07:02 PM

And now I am also seeing ads for the Admiral Grandsuites, which is the neigbouring tower. (also from Anchor Land Holdings Inc)

And it is definitely not cheap, -- at about PHP155,000 per square meter -- during the launch phase. How high will it go from here?

 

https://www.olx.ph/i...ml?h=c54ceca9cc



#10 DrBubb

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 04:48 AM

SUPPLY Concerns : Manila Bay

 

Business World headline / & a look at Forecast Supply figures

Metro Manila condominium rents fall, selling prices plateau

 

(based on Colliers latest report)

 

+ VACANCY RATES will likely pick up further over the next 12 months with new supply

+ Consequence: Rental prices fell, capital values are plateauting

+ Vacancy rates at high-end condos were 10.9% at the end of June - Colliers expects rates to "hover between 11.0 & 11.5%"

+ Metro Manila's total condo stock is 96,000 units, with an addition of 2,300 units in Q2

+ For 2017 as a whole, Colliers sees an addition of 16,100 units, and a takeup of 7,500 units - hence the rise in the vacancy rate

+ Coming supply: 20,000 units in 2018, 8,000 units in 2019

+ Take-up rate is projected to be 8,000 more each year

 

Highest vacancy rates were: BGC = 14% (12%); Makati: 12.7% (11%) - prior rates at Q1 shown in (brackets)

 

Prices rises are slowing:

+ Makati CBD : +3.1% (was + 3.2% in Q1),

+ BGC / Ft. Bonifacio : + 0.2% (+ 2.7%)

 

Growth of supply in fringe areas, as impacted on rents and selling prices in the CBD's, since home buyers and tenants have other options

 

SUPPLY FORECAST (Revised from end-2016)

==================

========= : End'16 : -2017 : -2018 : -2019 : -2020 : '17-20 : End'20 : % chg.
Ft.Bonifacio 24,200 : 4,100 : 8,200 : 3,000 : 0,000 : 15,300 : 37,500 : +63.2%
Makati CBD: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 0,300 : 06,100 : 28,100 : +27.7%
Rise/Air Res: 00,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 0,000 : 6,400 : 06,400 : 06,400 : Infin.
Ortigas Ctr. : 16,200 : 1,400 ; 0,700 : 0,500 : 0,600 : 03,200 : 19,800 : +19.8%
Manila Bay : 08,800 : 5,500 : 8,500 : 2,600 : 2,100 : 18,700 : 27,500 : +212% !!
Rockwell Ctr: 04,100 : 0,000 : 0,500 : 0,700 : 0,000 : 01,200 : 05,300 : +29.3%
Other Areas : 00,000 :
>> TOTAL-- : 91,100: 16100: 21300 : 8,100 : 3,100 : 00,000: 140,100 : +53.8%

Mak+Rise/Air: 22,000 : 3,500 : 1,800 : 0,500 : 6,700 : 12,500 : 34,500 : +56.8%

 

After this year, the supply rise in Makati's CBD falls sharply - but are we seeing the whole picture?

Collier's seems to ignore the Huge lump of supply (6,400 units) from The Rise and Air Residences,

which I think will hit the Rental market in 2019 or 2020 - but Colliers seems to leave it out - Why?

 

If you include Air & Rise with Makati CBD, the combined rise is 57%, which is in line with the rise of 54%

for Greater Manila.  Still, the big jump from these two in in 2019 or 2020, is bound to generate some sort of hiccup.

I hope it is a brief one.  Allowing AirBNB in one or both buildings may help absorb the excess supply there faster.

 

The  big jump in supply in Manila Bay (+212%) is a bigger concern to me,

We see + 8,500 units expected in 2018 - that's 97% of the end 2016 Supply of 8,800 units.

Can Manila Bay really attract so many new tenants, so quickly?  I truly doubt it.

There is bound to be a disruption of Rents and also hotel occupancy.

Don't be surprised if Hotels push back by trying to restrict AirBNB activity.

 

SM may be especially keen to demand some restriction because they are said to planning to build a hotel

in Manila Bay.  Will SMDC wind-up c"cutting off the legs" of their condo-buying customers?

 

I suggest extreme care in investing, and maybe analyzing the Supply situation more deeply that I am doing here.

If you do that, and agree or disagree, please share.  This site is about truth seeking, not mere promotion.

=

> Excerpt from post on the DATA thread: http://www.greenener...c=18811&page=17

 

Summary - increase in Condos units: over 2017-2020
BGC/theFort: +63%
Makati CBD  : +28%
Manila Bay  : +212%!!!
--- Overall  : +54%

However that Mak.CBD # does not include The Rise & Air Residences.
If you add on the 6,400 units at Rise & Air, you get:
Mak+Rise/Air: +57%
THAT much may be manageable, but will bring some temporary hiccups, I reckon.

 

The huge jump in Manila Bay may be more problematic IMHO.
In one year (2018, with 8,500 units) M-Bay will add as many units as they have now!
Can the rise in M-Bay tourism really absorb that? It might really hit the hotels.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 Euro Chocozone Buyer

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 07:32 PM

Well that is exactly my point. I just read on facebook, Shore 3 residences (tower 4) from SMDC

was launched august 18th. In 10 days they sold around 500 units from the 600 units in that building,

so it is almost completely sold out in a matter of days.

 

https://www.facebook...=nf&pnref=story

 

I wish they had released more stock in the Bay Area because the price per

square meter is now around PHP240,000 -- that's almost the Ayala Premier price of

a couple of years ago in various areas.

 

http://www.manilacon...re-3-residences

 

So for all of you out there -- procastinators or lookers or hesitators or whatever -- the Bay Area

is now more expensive than BGC and even Makati, because a nice project

like the Rise Makati is "struggling" to sell its units at PHP190,000 per square meter

for studio units, and it cannot even match Shore 3.

 

This is the first time that I see the php245K-php250K price per square meter on ordinary condos

from SMDC. -- There is nothing special about these condos. They're just a mass housing project

in a nice location.



#12 DrBubb

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 10:29 PM

The real market is NOT the price the developer sells at

- since it is not repeatable.

 

"I wish they had released more stock in the Bay Area because the price per

square meter is now around PHP240,000 -- that's almost the Ayala Premier price of

a couple of years ago"

(Mainland China buyers love M-Bay, since they go gambling there... & they meet many Property sales agents.

But when they try to rent out their newly-completed units all at once, they are likely to have some problems.

The rents they achieve may be WAY below what they expected, and yields much lower.

When they go to on-sell their expensive properties at a profit, or what they paid, they will be disappointed once again.)

 

YOU cannot sell at that price, nor can I.

 

(( The following is a discussion about Fair Market Value from a Viber group ))

.

Fair-Market-Value-Appraised-Value-Assess

 

A:

I have a problem with how many people define "Market Value"
Is it:
==
+ The high price that many developers LIST their properties for?
+ The (much lower) price you get if you pay Cash?, or
+ The (still lower) price you would get if you resell the property?

I AGREE that if you buy from the developer you are paying the HIGHEST price.
To get a better price, PAY CASH and/or BUY IN THE SECONDARY MARKET, and negotiate well

 

B:

Market value is the value in which a willing seller and a willing buyer will pay for a property exposed in the open market for a reasonable period of time both acting diligently and knowledgeably without any pressure or undue influence and acting in arms-length transaction. so, I would assume that fair market value is a value acceptable to both seller and buyer without any undue influence on them and that they are both knowledgeable about the market condition.

 

C:

I wonder if buyers from developers are aware of the market conditions as suggested by the definition of fair market value?

 

A:

Yup, so NOT the price offered by a Developer, and supported by Strong marketing, and financing packages - 

Maybe: the price at which you can resell a property in the secondary market

 

C:

I agree with A that secondary market will provide a better indicator of FMV as you can't sell it back to the developer anyway. FMV I feel has to be some sort of 2-way street

 

fair_market_value.png

A:

Yes, exactly: " FMV (is) ... some sort of 2-way street"

I reckon CONDO developers are often selling at 20-30% above Market value to unwary OFW's and Foreigners.  Price difference, if any, in the HOUSE market may be much smaller

 

7p3b60B.jpg

RiseMakati.com tracks resale interest at The Rise

 

Imagine how much better price you could get for (a secondhand property you want to sell), if you had armies of agents roving malls, and passing out brochures advertising your properties

Those (expensive) marketing efforts cost big money, and achieve a better price than you would find "between a willing buyer and seller".  Also primary sales by developers are backed up by "financing packages" which you do not get with resales.  In fact, I have heard that banks are reluctant to finance buyers in the secondary market, or may finance only a lower amount.  Thus, they might provide a 70% loan against a P 8 million new property, but if the same property is resold at P 7 million, they might finance only 60 or 65% of that lower figure. To me, this is pure madness by banks (I used to be a banker, btw).  Yet it may be reality.  In my example, the bank finances P5.6mn (80% of FMV) for the developer, and only 60-65% of FMV for the resale market for EXACTLY THE SAME PROPERTY.  I have been told this is happening, and if it is, it is because the banks are doing a poor job of assessing FMV consistently.

 

C:

A, could it be that the lower prices in the 2ndary market is because the units have been used by users/tenants, hence, physical depreciation has kicked-in..just like bnew cars vs used cars?

 

B:

Yeah, it is true that buyers from developers are usually not well informed about the market conditions especially if it is on a pre selling basis.. there are  no actual comparable available in the market.. so, the buyer is just influenced by the marketing effort, the financing scheme, the promotional campaign and others.. actually,, fair market value is best determined by the secondary market.. but the problem in the secondary market is also the comparable because you can not get a good comparable from the Register of Deeds, from the BIR AND other sources..

 

A:

"could it be that the lower prices in the 2ndary market is because the units have been used " 

I have seen many cases were a property is resold when never used.  - and the price is LOWER than the price offered at the same time for identical units by developers.  Example: You can pay P 5.2 million to the developer for a high floor 28 sqm unit at the Rise.  But if I want to buy or sell the same unit in the secondary market, the price might be P 4 to 4.2 million. Which price is FMV?  I reckon it is 4 to 4.2 million

 

B:

Yes, A, the fair market value is more or less on the 4.2 million selling price in the secondary market rather than the one from the developer..

 

A:

Yeah, so we agree - but guess what, the banks might finance 70% of the higher developers value at the Rise, because the banks have much more evidence of developers prices than they have of the actual secondary FMV

But the reality is if the banks finance 70% of 5.2 milllion = that's 3.64mn, they may have a tiny actual collateral margin

 

B:

Yes, the bank knew it but the problem is that if they rely on the secondary market, they will not be able to hot their target and may not be able to loan the money that they have..

 

A:

As a banker, these kind of inconsistencies used to drive me nuts...


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix



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