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DrBubb's Diary - Mar. 2017 Trading - v.98


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#1 DrBubb

DrBubb

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:19 AM

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2017.    The Diary's 9th Year

 

Diary-2017_zpsmnvqxcki.jpg

 

"His Best Speech yet" / President Trump Full Speech to Congress 2/28/17

 

: 1_1_1_GEI-2016_zpsq7xy2nqg.jpg

: "A Year of Growing Discernment" ?

 

THAT was 2016. Now we are in 2017:

GEI-2017_zpsk5hhsgyl.jpg

 

DrBubb's Diary - Mar. 2017 Trading - v.98

 

================

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) ... update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPY-Ratio //: sjw :

FRT_zpskyecmwt8.gif

 

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. These two have often traded counter-cyclically to each other.

 

"US Stocks-in-Euros" ... SPX-to-FXE or SPY-to-FXE Ratio ... update

SPX-inEUR_zpsx5cbauxb.png

 

This Ratio - SPX to Euros seems to move in a nice clear channel

 

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

LQD-etc_zpsdd3zuujn.png

 

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious.  By the end of 2014, we saw a FULL YEAR of decline in this would-be bellwether, yet SPY has gone on rising.  So the value of this indicator has become suspect.
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

"Big Three" Charts (SPY, GLD, DXY) ... 10d-Intraday : 6mos-D : 2yrs-D : 5yrs-D // CUvsGLDvsCRB

CU-etc_zpshxrrnyf4.gif

 

 

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY lower
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula:  (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

 

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :
 

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b cox cvn


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:20 AM

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
03-31: 206.43 - 1.82: 127.M: 15.29 : 18.24 - 0.23: 113.66 - 0.09: 4.38M: 1,185.5 $47.49* 98.406 +0.432: 130.69 +0.28: 00: 000/ 000: 2800
06-30: 205.85 +0.43: 155.M: 18.23 : 17.76 - 0.14: 112.31 - 0.70: 7.54M: 1,172.1 $59.09* 95.516 +0.541: 117.46 -0.82 : 11, 118/ 086, 1887
09-30: 192.13 +0.50: 142.M: 24.50 : 13.74 +0.33: 106.86 - 1.12: 7.19M: 1,114.5 $45.34* 96.282 +0.384 : 123.54 - 0.43: 04: 133/ 104, 2853
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913
01-29: 193.72 +4.61: 182.M: 20.20 : 14.21 +0.35: 106.95 +0.41 : 7.92M: 1118.4 $33.74* 99.531 +0.950 : 127.30 +1.07 :
02-29: 193.56 - 1.53: 109.M: 20.55 : 19.38 +0.69: 118.64 +1.53 : 11.5M: 1239.3 $33.90* 98.150 - 0.030 : 130.98 +0.57 : 00, 075/ 000 , 2,143
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50 : 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54 : 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* 94.630 -0.0.99 : 130.61 +0.92 : 01 ,094/ 055 , 2,950
04-29: 206.33 - 1.11 : 124.M: 15.70 : 25.83 +1.55: 123.65 +2.36 : 18.2M: 1294.9 $45.90* 93.018 - 0.448 : 129.38 +0.33 : 0?, 060/ ???  , 2800
05-31: 209.84 - 0.40 : 88.7M: 14.19 : 22.58 +0.30: 116.06 +0.44 : 8.06M: 1217.5 $48.83* 95.861 +0.161 : 130.16 +0.31 : 0?, 088/ ???  , 2651
06-30: 209.48 +2.82 : 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63 : 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* 95.809 +0.046 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ ???  , 1941
07-29: 217.12 +0.35 : 70.1M: 11.87 : 30.59 +0.84: 128.98 +1.32 : 12.9M: 1357.9 $41.60* 95.517 - 1.044 : 141.56 +1.17 : 0?, 064/ ???  , 2781

08-31: 217.38 - 0.62 : 71.9M: 13.42 : 25.42 -0.42 : 124.78 -0.25 : 13.2M: 1311.4 $44.70* 95.985 - 0.050 : 139.87 +0.20 : 03, 067/  237 , 5200

09-30: 216.30 +1.62 : 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 : $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24 / 04, 096 : 412 , 5556

10-31: 212.55 +0.01 : 55.9M: 17.06 : 24.52 +0.71: 121.94 +0.36:  7.09M: 1273.1 : $46.86* $98.44 +0.10 : 131.25 +0.80 / 10, 094 : 620 , 5200
11-30: 220.38 - 0.53: 92.0M: 13.33 : 20.83 - 0.40 : 111.75 - 1.52: 10.9M: 1173.9 : $49.44* 101.54 + 0.59 : 120.24 - 1.98 / 02, 107 : 311 , 5561
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 : $53.72* 102.38  - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18 / 03, 096: 360 , 4840
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02  00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 + 1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 : $52.80* $99.74  - 0.62 : 119.84  +0.57 / 08 120: 4554, 10,254
====

 

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

Feb
01: 227.62 +0.09 70.2M: 11.81 : 23.85 - 0.08: 115.20 - 0.35 6.88M: 1208.3 : $53.89* $99.60 - 0.14 : 119.10 -0.74/
02: 227.77 +0.15 64.5M: 11.93 : 24.38 +0.53; 115.84 +0.64 7.06M: 1219.4 : $53.54* $99.89 +0.29 : 119.05 -0.05/ 00, 008 : 000, 0,057
03: 229.34 +1.57 00.0M: 10.97 : 24.60 +0.22: 116.13 +0.29 0.00M: 1220.8 : $53.83* $99.72 - 0.17 : 119.00 -0.05/

#
06: 228.93 - 0.41 53.1M: 11.37 : 25.40 +0.80: 117.70 +1.57 8.43M: 1232.1 : $53.01* $99.90 +0.18 : 119.72 +0.72/ 00, 022 : 000, 0400
07: 228.94 +0.01 52.7M: 11.29 : 25.29 - 0.11: 117.46 - 0,24 8.55M: 1236.1 : $52.17* 100.31 +0.41 : 120.60 +0.88/ 02, 024 : 200, 0600
08: 229.24 +0.30 45.1M: 11.45 : 25.57 +0.28: 118.19 +0.73 9.57M: 1239.5 : $52.34* 100.33 +0.02 : 122.24 +1.64/ 03, 027 : 107, 0706 :

09: 230.60 +1.36 00.0M: 10.88 : 24.91 - 0.66: 117.29 -0.90 0.00M: 1235.0 : $53.00* 100.67 +0.34 : 120.83 - 1.41/
10: 231.51 +0.91 53.7M: 10.85 : 25.29 +0.38: 117.60 +0.31 8.62M: 1235.9 : $53.86* 100.71 +0.04 : 120.76 - 0.07/ 00, 040 : 000, 1000 :

#
13: 232.77 +1.26 48.5M: 11.07 : 24.95 - 0.34: 116.80 - 0.80 7.32M: 1225.8 : $52.93* 100.89 +0.18 : 120.38 - 0.38/ 00, 046 : 000, 1150

14: 233.70 +0.93 63.2M: 10.74 : 24.92 - 0.03: 116.93 +0.13 6.92M: 1225.4 : $53.20* 101.20 +0.20 : 119.51 +0.??/ 01, 047; 177; 1227
15: 234.92 +1.22 74.9M: 11.97 : 24.93 + 0.01: 117.45 +0.52 7.05M: 1233.1 : $53.11* 101.10 - 0.10 : 118.96 -0.55/ 02. 049; 073, 1300
16: 234.72 - 0.20 78.9M: 11.76 : 25.20 +0.27: 118.08 +0.63 6.30M: 1239.E : $00.00* 100.50 - 0.60 : 119.61 +0.65/ 01, 050; 083, 1383

17: 235.09 +0.37 63.3M: 11.49 : 24.79 - 0.42: 117.68 - 0.40 6.97M: 1238.1 : $53.78* 100.90 +0.40 : 120.32 +0.71/ 01, 051; 117, 1500
#

21: 236.49 +1.40 68.6M: 11.57 : 24.62 - 0.17: 117.75 +0.07 5.80M: 1238.9 : $54.33* 101.44 + 0.54 : 120.11 - 0.21/ 00, 061; 000, 2,011
22: 236.28 - 0.21 00.0M: 11.74 : 24.33 - 0.29: 117.91 +0.16 0.00M: 1233.3 : $53.59* 101.33 - 0.11 : 120.31 +0.20/ 02, 063; 159, 2,170
23: 236.44 +0.16 67.7M: 11.71 : 24.37 +0.04: 118.94 +1.03 7.19M: 1251.4 : $54.45* 100.98 - 0.35 : 120.67 +0.36/ 02, 065; 160, 2,330
24: 236.74 +0.30 68.1M: 11.47 : 24.13 - 0.24: 119.70 +0.76 9.47M: 1258.3 : $53.99* 101.12 +0.14 : 122.01 +1.34/ 02, 067; 370, 2,700
#

27: 237.11 +0.37 48.4M: 12.09 : 22.84 - 1.29: 119.12 - 0.58 8.99M: 1258.8 : $54.05* 101.16 +0.04 : 121.29 - 0.72/ 00, 076; 000, 3,525

28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 : $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 07, 083; 216. 3,741

==

01: 239.78 +3.32 118.M: 12.54 : 22.98 +0.13: 119.06 - 0.17 8.58M; 1252.E : $00.00* 101.82 +0.34 : 119.47 -2.04/ 05. 005; 051, 0,051

02: 238.27 - 1.51 00.0M: 11.81 : 21.93 - 1.05: 117.58 - 1.46 0.00M: 1232.4 : $52.61* 102.15 +0.33 : 119.04 - 0.43/ 07, 012; 060, 0,111
03: 238.42 +0.15 60.3M: 10.96 : 22.20 +0.27: 117.51 - 0.07 10.5M: 1226.5 : $53.33* 101.34 - 0.81 : 119.35 +0.31/ 00, 017. 095, 0,206

#

06: 237.71 - 0.71 48.3M: 11.24 : 21.64 - 0.56: 116.72 - 0.79 4.75M: 1225.5 : $53.20* 101.67 +0.33 : 118.78 - 0.57/ 00, 035; 000, 0,660

07: 237.00 - 0.71 52.2M: 11.45 : 21.51 - 0.13: 115.78 - 0.92 6.76M: 1216.1 : $53.15* 101.76 +0.09 : 118.42 - 0.36/ 06, 041; 260, 0,920
08: 236.56 - 0.44 64.9M: 11.86 : 21.35 - 0.16: 115.06 - 0.72 7.56M: 1209.4 : $50.28* 102.12 +0.46 : 117.78 - 0.64/ 05, 046; 350, 1,270
09: 236.86 +0.30 82.9M: 12.30 : 21.14 - 0.21: 114.47 - 0.59 6.33M: 1203.2 : $49.28* 101.96 - 0.07 : 116.84 - 0.94/ 03, 049; 200, 1,470

10: 237.69 +0.83 69.9M: 11.66 : 21.73 +0.59: 114.72 + 0.25 7.52M: 1201.4 : $48.49* 101.38 - 0.65 : 117.25 +0.41/ 06, 055; 210, 1,680

#

13: 237.81 +0.12 48.6M: 11.35 : 22.00 +0.27: 114.74 +0.02 5.60M: 1203.1 : $48.40* 101.43 +0.06 : 116.51 - 0.74/
14: 236.90 - 0.91 53.5M: 12.30 : 21.34 - 0.66: 114.12 -0.62 5.22M: 1202.6 : $47.72* 101.69 +0.26 : 117.07 +0.56/ 00, 000; 000, 0000
15: 238.95 +2.05 79.2M: 11.63 : 22.98 +1.64: 116.25 +2.13 13.1M: 1200.7 : $48.86* 100.63 - 1.06 : 118.50 +1.43/ 00, 066; 000, 2,800
16: 238.48 - 0.47 71.2M: 11.21 : 22.77 - 0.21: 116.73 +0.48 9.18M: 1227.1 : $49.24* 100.23 - 0.40 : 117.90 - 0.60/ 02, 068; 148, 2948

17: 237.03 - 0.41 69.4M: 11.28 : 22.67 - 0.10: 116.99 +0.26 4.42M: 1230.2 : $49.31* 100.31 +0.08 : 118.64 +0.74/ 05, 073; 200, 3148

#

20: 236.77 - 0.26 000.M: 11.34 : 22.94 +0.27: 117.56 +0.57 0.00M: 1234.0 : $48.91* 100.36 - 0.00 : 119.15 + 0.00/ 00,
21: 233.73 - 3.04 121.M: 12.47 : 23.26 +0.32: 118.54 +0.98 9.47M: 1246.5 : $48.24* $99.75 - 0.61 : 120.14 + 0.99/ 00, 085; 000, 4013
22: 234.28 +0.55 87.3M: 12.81 : 23.25 - 0.01: 118.83 +0.29 7.24M: 1249.7 : $48.04* $99.74 - 0.01 : 120.62 + 0.48/ 00, 085; 102, 4115

23: 234.03 - 0.25 91.4M: 13.12 : 23.03 - 0.22: 118.67 - 0.16 6.13M: 1247.2 : $47.70* $99.92 +0.18 : 120.45 - 0.17/ 02, 087; 110, 4225
24: 233.86 - 0.17 94.1M: 12.96 : 22.92 - 0.11: 118.86 +0.19 6.70M: 1248.5 : $47.97* $99.77 - 0.15 : 120.88 +0.43/

#

27: 233.62 - 0.24 81.2M: 12.50 : 23.43 +0.51: 119.53 +0.67 8.37M: 1255.7 : $47.73* $19.22 - 0.55 : 121.43 +0.55/ 00, 106; 000, 5150

28: 235.32 +1.70 78.8M: 11.53 : 22.81 - 0.62: 119.04 - 0.49 6.96M: 1254.8 : $48.37* $99.86 +0.09 : 120.62 - 0.81/ 01, 107 : 200, 5350
29: 235.54 +0.22 48.8M: 11.42 : 22.91 +0.10: 119.33 +0.29 4.88M: 1256.8 : $49.51* $99.98 + 0.12 : 121.34 +0.72/ 01, 108 : 200, 5550
30: 236.29 +0.75 00.0M: 11.54 : 22.55 - 0.36: 118.47 - 0.86 0.00M: 1250.0 : $50.35* 100.29 +0.31 : 120.36 - 0.98/ 02, 110 : 207, 5757
31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 : $50.60* 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 05, 115 : 210, 5,967


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:22 AM

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: Dec.31, 2016 )

 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - to 12/31/16 : $134.85, 2016 range: $93.64 to 138.82 : +48.25% - beta 1.845

... All : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015last-12mos

IWM-2016D_zpsvczsgleh.gif


EIGHT KEY CHARTS 
=================

- Watch for the 76d-MA (blue) Crossing the 987d-MA (yellow), or

- The 52wk MA crossing the 330wk-MA -on Weekly chart

Updates: (updated at end Dec. 2016) - some updates still needed
=====

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53, 2016 range: 181.02 to 228.34 : +26.14% - beta 1.00

 Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over soon

SPY-2016D_zpsbw9fjuai.gif

 

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13, 2016 range: 116.80 to 143.62 : +22.96% - beta 87.8%

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

TLT-2016D_zpswgazwznt.gif

 

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46, 2016 range: $23.96 to $26.77 : +11.73% - beta 44.9%

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but looking very tired

UUP-2016D_zpsbbmd6if7.gif

 

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 2016 range: $07.67 to $12.45 : +62.32% - beta 2.38

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : 10yrL :  Price is battling that old Downtrend

USO-log-2016D_zps6lkbrkzg.gif

 

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP... to 12/31/16 : $75.32, 2016 range: $49.93 to $78.45 : +57.11% - beta 2.185

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is DOWN, reversing?

Old-trend-was-accelerating ... as the uptrend ended

XLE-2016D_zpslfvxasu2.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016 range: $07.67 to $12.45 : +62.32% - beta 2.38

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

OIH-2016D_zpsk0ng8zdi.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61, 2016 range: 102.49 to 131.15 : +27.96% - beta 1.07

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

GLD-2016D_zpspggb8zw9.gif

 

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92, 2016 range: $12.40 to $31.79 : +156.4% - beta 5.98

GDX  ... All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

GDX-2016D_zpsh4dqzeel.gif

 

HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data-update :

HUI-2016D_zpsuihvykng.gif

 

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

ShCompL-2016D_zps5mdil9ec.gif

 

===== Links to other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : ??

PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new, 

=====


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:24 AM

BRADLEY Model : 
TURN dates
2015 : May 10, May 25, June 8, Sept. 23, Oct. 17
2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, -Jan.4, +Jan.17
====
Model for 2016:

2016-SP-500-Bradley-Siderograph-Turn-Dat


SPY... 2015-2017: Dec.31, 2016: $223.53 / Mar.01, 2017: $ 239.78 +$16.25 : + 7.26% on the Year

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, / -Jan.4, +Jan.17

2017-SPY_zpsk3ozpf8p.gif

 
Model for 2017:
SP_500_Bradley_Siderograph.png
===

 

Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks... In early July (when the Bradley model peaked), TLT hit new highs.

TLT... 2015-2017 : Dec.31, 2016: $119.13 / Mar.01, 2017: $119.47 : + $0.34 : + 0.29% on the Year

2017-TLT_zps0c0kco7b.gif

 

USD trade-weighted:

DXY ... 2015-2017DXY-all-data : 10d : Dec.31, 2016: $102.36 / Mar.01, 2017: $101.77 : - $0.59 : - 0.57% on the Year

2017-DXY_zpsm6zp1aug.gif

 

 

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX :

UGLD-vsGDX_zpsyqydt5ql.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:25 AM

The current cycle may tell us a lot about where Gold is headed in 2017-18

 

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

 

Here's what I expected from the time of the "expected Dec. Cyclical low"

 

GLD: update: end-may: $116.06 +0.44/ UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840: $ 898.5 /7.76= $115.80 : HK-3081: $29.35 r-30.61

GLD-12mos_zpsxmqnwhs4.gif

 

I managed to pick up some GLD calls the last day of 2015, ie 12/31.

(I went for the GLD March $103-calls, paying $2.14 per call.)

I also bought Jan.18 GLD and Feb.17 NUGT Calls on the Dec. 2016 Low.

 

Gold-toUSD_zps2zk6n4gi.png

 

... continues: Low, Dec.15th: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

 

Gold-toDXY_zpsehk68ypw.png

 

 

 

Here's what happened - a Nice Rally !  But it may be petering out as we go into March (and April) ?

 

Cycles since GLD started trading

I ran this chart before selling about US$100k of Gold yesterday

 

GLD ... All-data

gld-cyc-0_zpsw1racqh3.gif

 

I was concerned that gold was running higher "on its own", without the participation of Gold shares.

and I thought the 4-6 mos cycle might be rolling over

 

I also produced this busy chart, expecting that NUGT might test expected support at about $10.00

(In my own chart work, I am accustomed to looking at such busy charts.)

nugt-12mo_zpswwldd0zz.gif

 

Later in the day, we saw a sharp drop in GDX (-5.35%) and in NUGT (-16.07%)

 

NUGT ... 12 mos : Last: $9.45 - $1.81 : -16.07%

nugt_zps1qvgqarn.gif

 

What we saw in the summer was: Gold chopped along in a high range, while GDX came down,

resulting in a GDX/GLD ratio that looks like this:

 

GDX-toGLD_zps07dbaqwx.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 01 March 2017 - 08:26 AM

"His Best Speech yet"

Krauthammer: This should have been Trump's inaugural address

 

President Trump Full Speech to Congress 2/28/17

Published on Feb 28, 2017

In his finest hour, President Trump delivers a speech for the history books.

 

OTHER Comments:

======

Newt Gingrich:

Gingrich 'blown away' by President Trump's 'best speech'

"Not what the Democrats expect from a Republican President"

"A desire to get very big things done..."

 

Chris Wallace:

‘I Feel Like Tonight Donald Trump Became the President of the United States’

 

"Now everyone is going to have to accept this fact."


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 01:58 AM

Global rally sparked by mounting evidence for increase in March

 

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 : $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 07, 083; 216. 3,741
01: 239.78 +3.32 118.M: 12.54 : 22.98 +0.13: 119.06 - 0.17 8.58M; 1000.0 : $00.00* 101.82 +0.34 : 119.47 - 2.04/ 05. 005; 051, 0,051

 

Non-confirmation?

SPX at New Highs, but SPX-toGold ratio is not:

 

SpX-toGold_zpsczbphm5a.png

 

Prior peak was a Double Top very near 2.00 - Strength Test coming?

 

Gold-to-TLT may be set for a breakout: (or not)

 

Gold-toTLT_zpscksw5oax.png

 

I am still concerned that GDX is far weaker than GLD


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 02:57 AM

TONY C - Update

======

Extract

Our early November target of the SPX 2380’s for this uptrend has been met. The SPX is up 15.2% during this uptrend alone, as it has now extended into its fourth month. Quite an uptrend! We believe the market has now generated enough clues to hone in on the short term count. We can now count 9 waves up from the Nano wave ii low at SPX 2267: 2289-2272-2299-2285-2368-2353-2372-2359-2401 thus far. Yes, we just divided Micro 3 into five nano waves. It’s a long uptrend. This suggests Nano iii can end at anytime, although it would be ideal with a short term negative divergence, and a 30+ point pullback could follow for Nano iv.

Still plenty of time, however, for this uptrend to go higher before entering a correction

======

From Comments

/ 1 /

bouraq says:

Chart of the day is $DJIA at http://www.tradingchannels.uk
pA6lfo2.png

/ 2 /

fionamargaret says:

xbi-leading-spx-breaking-out-of-pennant-
Thanks Chris Kimble

https://raymondjames...com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James

/ 3 /

Stephen Swanson (@belloswede) says:

Thanks Tony for today’s guidance and your always informed and sober take on the markets.

Obviously, much or all of today’s gain were the result of Trump’s widely applauded speech in which he listed his accomplishments to date, laid out overarching nationalistic themes, articulated broad policies, appealed for unity, condemned anti Semitic incidents and, in a riveting moment, recognized the ultimate sacrifice made by Navy Seal Ryan Owens. Many, including the very liberal Van Jones of CNN, feel the speech was a defining moment in which it became clear Trump is our president notwithstanding deep policy divides. Many Republicans would agree as they want Trump to be the person we saw last night. I, for one, am happy for Trump as he has endured vitriol, hate and spite dished out by my most media outlets. Some criticize Trump for not offering more specifics but repeal and replace, tax and regulatory reform and infrastructure spending will require congressional approval making it virtually impossible to define the final product(s). In fact he’s nearing the end of big achievements he can enact by executive order, forcing him to rely on Congress to turn the bold promises of his campaign into actual achievements. Nothing is guaranteed but I think his current demeanor and tone will further the case for congressional approval on key programs. But who knows and it remains a risk.

 

Unlike Obama, whose $900 billion stimulus measure contained little spending on hard assets, Trumps want to make real investments to improve our infrastructure while limiting pork. This is certain to provoke the ire of democrats.The mid March Fed meeting is looming with odds of a rate increase in the 66% range with Bloomberg calling for an 83% chance with Bill Dudley’s remark that an increase in rates has become “more compelling” being the catalyst. Assuming a rate hike, I would expect minor volatility and a resumption of the trend up depending upon the wave count. Everyone knows the odds and it would hardly be a surprise if they increase the federal funds rate to the 75 to 100 bp range. As Tony said, the next critical levels to watch are 2411 and 2428

==

> https://caldaro.word...e-585/#comments


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 04:02 AM

Do Black opinions matter? 

Some do. Some don't - as you will see here

Trump's skill for getting things done - vs. Obama;s skill for Reading off Teleprompters

 

Don Lemon's Idiotic Reaction to Trump's First Address to Congress


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 08:59 AM

HOW MUCH HOUSING (in SF) can $1 Million buy you - in various cities?

 

Housing_CostOf_zpshb3b9awx.png

 

Philadelphia still looks like an interesting "low cost" option.

But some wild ideas are being considered, which misconstrue a Poverty problem as a Housing problem,

As the image above shows, there is plenty of cheap housing in Philly

 

Philadelphia City Council President Darrell Clarke unveiled a new plan this week to address what he calls a housing affordability “crisis.”

Creatively titled “The 1,500 Affordable Housing Units Initiative,” the proposal calls for the construction of 1,000 affordable rental units and 500 purchasable homes, with the goal of reducing the backlog of 110,000 people on the Philadelphia Housing Authority’s waiting list.

The 500 homes would come from transferring city-owned vacant properties to non-profit and private developers for low fees with a restrictive deed covenant attached, requiring that they be sold to households who earn between 80 to 120 percent of the Area Median Income. Philly’s AMI is officially $78,800 for a family of four, though PlanPhilly’s Jared Brey notes the actual median income in Philadelphia County is $37,016.

The 1,000 rental units would be financed with a $100 million bond issue and some complicated public finance alchemy leveraging an underused 4 percent federal Low Income Housing Tax Credit.

While it’s always good to see well-meaning city leaders engaging with housing affordability and cost of living issues, the big problem with Clarke’s plan is that the housing affordability “crisis” he’s worrying about doesn’t actually exist. The impetus for the plan rests on a misreading of the policy implications of a recent Urban Institute report, cited in Clarke’s press release:

In 2012, for every 100 extremely low-income renter households in Philadelphia there were only 37 available affordable rentals units, according to the nonpartisan Urban Institute in Washington, D.C. In total, there were 43,700 affordable and available rental units for 117,578 extremely low-income renter households in Philadelphia.

Clearly this is a huge problem. But it isn’t really a housing problem — it’s an income problem.

The housing itself is quite cheap here compared to most of Philadelphia’s peer cities. The real issue is the 28.4 percent poverty rate, one of the highest in the nation. Cheap as the housing is in absolute terms, a sizable segment of the population still doesn’t earn enough money to afford it.

==

> more: https://nextcity.org...ability-problem

 

So many poor people are living in the city of Philadelphia precisely because it IS CHEAP.

Presumably, the creation of many decent jobs would be the very best cure for this problem


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 DrBubb

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 12:21 PM

Inflation & US Rate Rise concerns

 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:02 PM

Cerny Banders may start a Third Party

 

bernie-clinton-soldout.png

 

That's what Mike Rivero believes.

He thinks Bernie is increasingly unhappy as a Democrat, because he sees them as childish and self-destructive.

 

(Apparently, whatever deal he may have made with Hillary has now expired. Or he sees the satanic one as neutralized.)

 

cern-lhc-660x330.jpg

 

The "CERNY" inversion, is because I see some similarities between Mr Sanders and CERN, and I will comment on these later

 

Bernie Sanders under rising pressure to form third party - Washington ...

www.washingtontimes.com/news/.../bernie-sanders-under-rising-pressure-to-form-thir...

3 days ago - Sen. Bernard Sanders “has not closed the door” on a third-party run as supporters rally for a Draft Bernie for a People's Party. (Associated ...

 

/ 2 /

Bernie Sanders Could be Forming a Third Party - Conservative Tribune

conservativetribune.com/devastating-bernie-sanders-news/

1 day ago - One of the issues that scares many Democrats is a movement to get Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to form his own third party, The Washington ...

 

/ 3 /

BREAKING: Bernie Sanders Could be Forming a 3rd Party ...

22 hours ago - BREAKING: Bernie Sanders Could be Forming a Third Party – Democratic Party is RUINED. ~~ Links: 1)

 

Democratic Party is RUINED.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 02 March 2017 - 11:18 PM

HEDGED rather than Sold Bitcoins - Here's Why

 

BTC - 32 Months

BTC-32mo_zpsfbqso7sg.png

 

I hedged rather than selling the bulk of my Bitcoins position in the last 24 hours when it touched the Gold price near $1230-1250.

Here's why...

 

(see the detailed explanation of trades and positions in the new "Bitcoin Banker" thread):

http://www.greenener...showtopic=21325


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 03:01 AM

NOW for Something completely different

 

Win Half A Bitcoin! | David Seaman "Deep" Contest

 

Published on Mar 1, 2017

Win half a bitcoin by sharing your deepest wisdom in 3 minutes or less here on YouTube! Participants agree to contest terms, including giving this channel permission to re-air your video in full or in part.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 12:58 PM

They are HATING the Miners and GLD on Tony C's Blog

 

fionamargaret says:

gdxj-gdx-ratio-forming-large-bearish-can
crude-oil-testing-800-pound-resistance-t
Thanks Chris Kimble

https://raymondjames...com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James

/ 2 /

mjtplayer says:

Gold – broken diagonal pattern, GLD should be headed to the $113 area ($1,190 area) is short order

https://www.tradingv...com/x/0L9npElN/

GDX looks awful, leading the yellow metal lower and almost waterfall selling over the past week. Minor support here around the $22 level, could get a bounce back to the mid $23’s, but that would just be a bounce and potential right-shoulder of a H&S pattern. If this plays out, downside target would be the mid $18’s – which curiously was the also the Dec lows. If no bounce, $20 is next support.

https://www.tradingv...com/x/gFV4PbMG/

==

> https://caldaro.word...e-570/#comments


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 01:06 PM

A Yellen  Moment ahead?

 

Friday, March 03, 2017

  1. 07:49 AM ET

    European stocks decline as investors step cautiously ahead of Yellen MarketWatch

  2. 05:45 AM ET

    FTSE 100 pulls lower after record week, with Yellen ahead MarketWatch

  3. 04:33 AM ET

    Pound falls to $1.2230 as U.K. services PMI drops to 5-month low MarketWatch

UKX chart ... 5-years

UKX_zps7hqqobfb.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 02:06 PM

Could beat least  some "minor" support kicking in at/near $1225

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif : idx24_usd_en_2.gif :

 

GBS ... update : 5-yrsGLD

GBS-6mos_zpsgvuzrswm.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 03 March 2017 - 02:27 PM

Bitcoins made a record High and touched $1300 - exceeding Gold prices by as much as $70

 

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

 

BTC .. 10 days

BTC-10d_zps1nwgfpzv.png

 

MW-FH174_gold_b_20170302130347_ZH.jpg?uu

 

Bitcoin has risen more than 25% this year to trade on Thursday at an all-time high north of $1,250.

josephAdinolfi2_100.png

By

JosephAdinolfi
Markets reporter
 

One unit of so-called digital gold is now worth more than an ounce of the real thing.

The price of a single bitcoin US:BTCUSD  rose to an all-time high of $1,251.32 on Thursday, surpassing the price of a single ounce of gold, according to CoinDesk’s bitcoin price index. Bitcoin traded on certain Chinese exchanges briefly overtook gold in early February. But this is the first time in the digital currency’s eight-year history that it has done so according to most widely used bitcoin-price benchmarks.

Many bitcoin watchers, including Charles Hayter, chief executive officer and founder of CryptoCompare, a company that provides data and analytics about digital currencies, have pointed out that bitcoin has a positive correlation with gold. They argue that investors are becoming more comfortable with the digital currency, making them more willing to buy it when more conventional markets like stocks are under duress.

MW-FH172_gold_b_20170302130058_MG.jpg?uu

Unlike gold, investors who wish to gain exposure to bitcoin, but are reluctant to buy coins directly, have few available options. The Securities and Exchange Commission is weighing whether to approve the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, one of three proposed bitcoin ETFs under consideration. A decision is expected by March 11. Until recently, only accredited investors could buy into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust GBTC, +7.13% but shares often trade at a premium to bitcoin’s net-asset value.

 

Read: Has bitcoin matched gold’s status? One expert weighs in

Read: Bitcoin could soar if the Winklevoss ETF is approved

Read: Should you invest in a bitcoin ETF?

Spencer Bogart, a researcher at Blockchain Capital and former analyst at Needham & Co., believes the chances of approval are low. But if it does happen, he says bitcoin’s valuation could experience an even larger increase in valuation than gold did after the 2004 launch of the iShares SPDR Gold Trust, the first gold ETF GLD, -0.53%

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has classified bitcoin as a commodity, like gold. However, there is at least one important difference between the two: With a total market capitalization around $20 billion, the bitcoin market is much, much smaller, and far more volatile, than the market for the yellow metal.

And many gold enthusiasts remain skeptical. In an interview with CNBC earlier this week, Peter Schiff, the chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital and longtime goldbug, compared bitcoin with the Beanie Babies craze that captivated Americans during the mid-to-late 1990s.

“It’s digital fools gold,” he said.

Gold GCJ7, -0.30%  has risen nearly 8% this year, with one ounce trading at $1,242 on Thursday. By comparison, bitcoin has risen more than 25%.

==

> http://www.marketwat...ever-2017-03-02


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 04 March 2017 - 12:58 AM

Has bitcoin matched gold’s status? One expert weighs in MarketWatch

 

The price for a single bitcoin exceeded the price of an ounce of gold for the first time ever Thursday, but the digital currency isn’t ready to join gold or silver as a reliable long term store of value, Paul Mladjenovic, author of “Precious Metals Investing for Dummies,” told MarketWatch.

“I want to see a lot more stability and I want to see that [bitcoin] has the same characteristics of durability that gold and silver have had over not just years but centuries,” Mladjenovic said in a Facebook Live interview.

The price of a single bitcoin US:BTCUSD  rose to an all-time high of $1,251.32 on Thursday, according to CoinDesk’s bitcoin price index. April gold futures on Comex GCJ7, +0.17%  changed hands at $1,233.20 an ounce, down 1.4% on the day. For the year to date, gold is up more than 7%, while bitcoin is up more than 25%.


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See: Bitccoin is now worth more than ounce of gold for the first time ever

 

Some view the eight-year-old cryptocurrency as a proxy for gold and silver because of its limited supply, Mladjenovic said. But it’s relatively short record and volatile action mean it has yet to achieve the same status, he said, arguing that bitcoin remains a “speculator’s market.”

Bitcoin has been in rally mode since early 2015, boosted in part by increased Chinese demand. Recent gains have also been attributed to expectations the Securities and Exchange Commission could soon authorize the creation of the first bitcoin exchange-traded fund.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

DrBubb

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Posted 04 March 2017 - 01:36 AM

It's A Mathematical certainty That The Economic Is Going To Come Down:Simon Black

 

Published on Feb 28, 2017
 
Since Trump's election, there has been a substantial increase in interest rates.
The US gov has to borrow more to finance themselves
 
(from above):
 

TLT... 2015-2017 : Dec.31, 2016: $119.13 / Mar.01, 2017: $119.47 : + $0.34 : + 0.29% on the Year

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The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




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