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Olympic Station / Tai Kok Tsui, Kowloon


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 02:42 PM

Olympic Station / and Tai Kok Tsui, Kowloon

 

TLB-OlympicStaB_zpswtsyotfo.jpg

=================

 

The area near Olympic station consists of an Old and New part.

With the New part = to the West / Old = to the East ... of the MTR station.

"Old TKT" to the East of Olympic is changing fast

: 7lue.png : ParkIvy_zpse1cb74b9.jpg :

 

Park Ivy is at the corner of Ivy & Pine Street.

On the west side (to the left of the station) is the newer part 

which is on landfilll and also on landfill is to the South of Old TKT

on Hoi Wang Road which is a sort of continuation of Pine St. Hoi Wang Road is the
connection to lower West Kowloon and the XRL.
8zqt.png : tlvj.jpg
Hermitage: at the top of the Grand Chamber

The Old part of TKT (surrounding the so-called "Ivy St. and Pine St bend") is being gentrified ... Larger map
Olympic MTR Station (blue rectangle and red dot) is in the lower Left corner, and there is a covered walkway
running North from the MTR station, and terminating at the West ending of Ivy Street, the old Main St. of TKT.

 

Map of Old Tai Kok Tsui / TKT ... Map with fewer labels

====

gqgf.jpg

The new buildings in the Olympic Station area are mostly built on landfill
- to the North of the area where the Express Rai to China (XRL) and WKCC are being built :
Spending by the well off residents living in these new skyscrapers are feeding the ongoing gentrification,
and making the old neighborhood nicer for everyone. Longer term, the proximity to the Express Train to China,
should bring a continuing long term improvement.

 

TKT MAP : highlighting Landfill areas - Ivy St. (brown) and Pine St / Hoi Wang Rd. (blue) : fewer lines

=======

3ypx.jpg

: GOOGmap
/ source: http://www.chinatour...Kowloon-Map.jpg

 

MTR Map -- Larger map and source (also shows SZ connections)

========

mf8z.jpg

Olympic / TKT is North of Kowloon's most transformative development, the XRL station, and WKCC


WEST KOWLOON Cultural Centre (WKCC), what's coming

ov1e.jpg

Dec. 2011 Plan : Enlarged image : ( That park in the lower left is not central enough, to be optimally useful IMHO)
nxg9.jpg

/source: http://www.urbanphot...r-west-kowloon/

XRL Kowloon thread :: http://www.greenener...showtopic=17597

MTR Map (incl. SZ) - :: http://johomaps.com/.../hkmetro_ch.jpg

AX thread on TKT --- :: http://hongkong.asia...ion-tkt-thread/

===
LINK to here :: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-TKT


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 09 August 2013 - 02:07 AM

Park Avenue / Central Park is the key price bellwether in the Olympic area

 

Oly-Park_Avenue_zps2da42f83.jpg

 

CCL-Index-update : below to 9/22/13

waea.png

 

Property Prices in Olympic Station / TKT area, and Luxury Rents
(Rents are for Hermitage, per LuxeHomes data, from March 2012)
.
Mo.: CCLI-e: MetHbV: Isl.HrbV : ParkAve: Hermit.- Rent: yield : LongBch: HrbGrn: Cosmo:
Jan. : $91.45 : $6,248 : $07,983 : $08,773 : $10,801 - 28.E : ==== : $08,000e $08,269 : $3,844 :
Feb : $96.44 : $6,453 : $09,336 : $09,739 : $11,569 - 28.E : ==== : $08,164 : $08,517 : $4,460 :
Mar : $96.98 : $6,573 : $09,257 : $09,771 : $12,008 - 28.E : ==== : $08,707 : $09,114 : $4,624 :
Apr. : $97.60 : $6,913 : $09,239 : $09,977 : $11,229 - 28.E : ==== : $09,608 : $09,646 : $4,682 :
May : $99.43 : $7,021 : $09,418 : $09,963 : $12,972 - 28.E : ==== : $09,619 : $09,532 : $4,591 :
Jun. : $99.23 : $6,740 : $09,243 : $10,180 : $13,764 - 28.E : ==== : $09,274 : $09,879 : $4,451 :
July : $99.11 : $6,956 : $08,879 : $09,966 : $13,809 - 29.E : ==== : $09,545 : $10,242 : $5,250 :
Aug : $99.41 : $7,079 : $09,285 : $10,628 : $13,382 - 29.E : ==== : $09,600e $09,786 : $4,549 :
Sep : $99.21 : $6,883 : $09,233 : $10,433 : $12,344 - 29.E : ==== : $09,600e $09,608 : $4,647 :
Oct. : $97.94 : $6,683 : $09,150 : $10,319 : $13,851 - 29.E : ==== : $10,083 : $09,826 : $4,306 :
Nov. : $97.24 : $6,466 : $09,186 : $10,442 : $11,412 - 29.E : ==== : $10,000e $09,397 : $4,670 :
Dec. : $96.68 : $6,615 : $09,100 : $10,147 : $12,951 - 29.E : ==== : $08,935 : $09,547 : $4,835 :
2012
Jan. : $94.47 : $06,635 : $08,770 : $$9,663 : $12,480 - 30.E : 2.9% e $09,950 : $08,598 : $4,942 :
Feb : $95.15 : $06,615 : $08,449 : $$9,638 : $12,907 - 30.E : 2.8% e $09,694 : $09,313 : $4,601 :
Mar : 100.16 : $07,046 : $09,296 : $10,105 : $13,900 - 31.2 : 2.69% : $09,745 : $09,681 : $4,766 :
Apr. : 101.12 : $07,350 : $09,841 : $$9,904 : $14,496 - 30.2 : 2.50% : $09,820 : $10,181 : $4,805 :
May : 104.00 : $07,300 : $09,643 : $10,714 : $13,832 - 29.3 : 2.54% : $09,359 : $10,152 : $5,259 :
Jun. : 104.60 : $07,182 : $09,241 : $10,906 : $12,918 - 30.6 : 2.84% : $09,843 : $09,637 : $5,226 :
July : 106.54 : $06,886 : $09,663 : $11,145 : $14,175 - 33.0 : 2.79% : $10,892 : $10,582 : $4,872 :
Aug : 106.89 : $07,312 : $09,622 : $11,201 : $15,294 - 35.1 : 2.75% : $10,044 : $09,940 : $5,126 :
Sep : 110.14 : $07,851: $10,018 : $10,804 : $12,891 - 35.9 : 3.34% : $10,060 : $10,362 : $4,997 :
Oct. : 114.35 : $08,058 : $09,925 : $10,805 : $15,105 - 34.5 : 2.74% : $10,250 : $10,514 : $5,746 :
Nov. : 115.05 : $08,192 : $10,293 : $11,749 : $13,514 - 35.8 : 3.18% : $09,697 : $10,876 : $5,992 :
Dec. : 115.78 : $08,437 : $10,432 : $11,161 : $13,500 - 36.8 : 3.27% : $09,890 : $10,789 : $6,040 :
2013
Jan. : 119.13 : $08,783 : $10,670 : $11,039 : $13,500 - 34.6 : 3.08% : $09,707 : $11,026 : $6,135
Feb : 121.64 : $08,526 : $10,917 : $12,147 : $13,197 - 33.8 : 3.07% : $10,654 : $10,932 : $5,872
Mar : 123.01 : $08,892 : $11,419 : $12,430 : $13,879 - 33.6 : 2.91% : $10,342 : $11,754 : $6,753
Apr. : 118.84 : $08,692 : $10,673 : $12,150 : $12,885 - 35.0 : 3.26% : $10,067 : $14,076 : $5,,895
May : 119.06 : $08,217 : $10,026 : $11,649 : $13,650 - 37.4 : 3.29% : $10,000 e $10,665 : $6,499
Jun. : 121.88 : $08,319 : $10,111 : $11,890 : $13,634 - 31.8 : 2.80% : $10,000 e $11,527 : $6,259
July : 120.95 : $08,290 : $10,076 : $11,850 : $12,233 - 32.0 : 3.14 % : $10,414 : $11,224 : $6,627

Aug : 119.85 : $08,625 : $10,018 : $11,826 : $14,518 - 34.3 : 2.84 % : $11,096 : $10,393 : $6,866
Sep : 120.00 : $08,494 : $10,051 : $11,826 : $14,563 - 35.7 : 2.94 % : $11,000 : $11,878 : $6,053
Oct. : 119.50 : $08,566 ; $10,576 : $11,958 : $16,518 - 35.1 : 2.54 % : $08,618 : $11,413 : $6,826
Nov : 120.39 : $08,595 : $10,449 : $12,000 : $14,780 - 33.9 : 3.00 % : $10,000 : $10,544 : $6,409
Dec.: 119.07 : $08,849 : $10,783 : $12,325 : $15,000 - 33.9 : 3.00 % : $10,000 : $10,530 : $6,239
===
Mo.: -CCLI-e : MetHbVw : Isl.HrbVw : ParkAve : Hermit.- Rent : yield% : LongBch : HrbGrn. : Cosmo:
==================
 
 

(Uses Month-end figures from CL, where available)
/source : CCLI : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm / Historical : http://202.72.14.52/...rchHistory.aspx
/source- Price: Hermitage : http://hk.centadata....t&code2=&page=0
/source- TLB, HGR, COS : http://hk.centadata....ode=2EEPPWPPVPW
/source- Rents: Luxehomes

(SAVED for more links / or Estate Agent ads)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:33 AM

SELECTED EXCERPTS from AX's thread on Tai Kok Tsui : most posts by OffThePeak
===================

(1)
Tai Kok Tsui versus Sai Yun Pun / TKT vs SYP
===
Why not buy somewhere that ALREADY has an MTR station, and is only 7-8 minutes (two stations) away from Hong Kong station?

That's Tai Kok Tsui, and it is gentrifying, as older buildings get pulled down, and new high-rises go up. Best of all, you can WALK to the express train to China when it is completed / maybe 15 to 18 mins away. I think one could argue that the Express Train will have a greater positive impact on TKT than the MTR stations will on SYP - since the MTR is arguably "already priced in" to SYP prices.

(2)
What will drive price appreciation in TKT is:

+ Ongoing gentrification and new buildings
+ More Grade-A offices, bringing new jobs
+ The spending power of the new residents, which improves retail and infrastructure
+ Some excitement (just as there has been in SYP) as the Express Train station gets closer to completion

I took a walk around the area yesterday, and we were struck by how the area is beginning to "come together" with the area in front of Park Avenue/ Central Park being the "central chamber" of a huge outdoor corridor with the greenery of Cherry Park adding to the positive feeling there.

In future, people will walk through that corridor, under the highway into the heart of TKT. Park Summit could have been a great development (it looks good from the outside), but the rooms within the flats are too small for my taste, but others may disagree.

(3)
"The Dark Side" versus "The Back Side"

(Talking about how extending the Tung Chung Line to Causeway Bay and beyond will have an impact...)

This new connection through Tamar, the Convention Hall and Causeway Bay will make those living along the Tung Chung line feel more connected with HK Island. There are some who do not like that long walk from HK Station to Central, and now they will be able to avoid it for many of their journeys.

This new line will also connect the Eastern part of HK Island better to the (coming) Express train to China and to the airport.

And I do genuinely see this as evidence that the "heart of the HKSAR" is now moving towards Kowloon, and very possibly to TKT. Admit it.
=====

It amazes me that some "historians" still living on HK Island still call Kowloon "the dark side" when there are so many important developments coming here (XRL, WK Cultural district etc) which are threatening to put HK Island "in the shade."

How long before I will be winding up Lloyd by calling HK Island "the new dark side"? Or even "The Backside" (reflecting its backwards looking status.) ?

 

Long Beach area - before Imperial Cullinan was built

1c7b4dfd0.jpg

(4)
PRICE COMPARISONS for mid-April 2013
- TKT benchmark Park Avenue compared with others on the Tung Chung / and TKO Lines

You can get a nice modernised 2BR flat in an older building (just less than 40 years old) about 5 minutes walk from Olympic station in Tai Kok Tsui for under $3 Million - and then rent it for more than 4% Gross Rental yield.

Here are some comparative figures for Per SF, Gross and New :

"The TC/TKO Through Line" : using Tower 3, 30-C Flat Bank Valuations (mostly)
====
Area: Estate Name == : -04/14/13 : %-TKT : Flat== : BkValue : SFgr/net : PSFnet : Effic% : Yrs :
TKO : ParkC/ Cent.Hts. : $07,712 : 63.2% : T3-30C : $7.47 M : 899/691 : 10,810 : 76.9% : 10 :
TKoo Tsui Woo Terrace : $11,936 : 97.9% : T3-25C : $6.07 M : 585/489 : 12,413 : 83.6% : 35 :
TKT : ParkAv/CentPark : $12,198 : 100.% : T3-30C : $12.3 M : 943/659 : 18,665 : 69.9% : 12 :
TsYi : Tierre Verde ----- : $09,628 : 78.9% : T3-30C : $8.90 M : 951/765 : 11,634 : 80.4% : 14 :
TCC : Caribbean Coast : $05,795 : 47.5% : T3-30C : $4.31 M : 680/507 : $8,501 : 74.6% : 11 :

(Adding in the property mentioned above):
TKT : "Older Building" - : $06,338 : 52.0% : XXhi-# : $2.70*M : 426/326 : $8,282: 76.5% : 38 :

(5)
What is the importance of Express Rail Link? (XRL)
====
"The 26-km long Hong Kong Section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link (Express Rail Link, or XRL) runs from West Kowloon in Hong Kong to the boundary of Hong Kong and Shenzhen. The Express Rail Link will connect with the 16,000-km National High-speed Railway Network and will enhance Hong Kong's role as the southern gateway to the Mainland. Construction of the Express Rail Link commenced in January 2010, with completion targeted for 2015."

(Following a period of trial operation, the passenger service is planned for the second half of 2015.)
===
/see: http://www.expressraillink.hk/en/home/

Estimated Journey Time
Between Hong Kong and Futian, Shenzhen : 14 minutes
Between Hong Kong and Shenzhen North-- : 23 minutes
Between Hong Kong and Guangzhou South: 48 minutes

The Terminus in West Kowloon, with convenient linkage to Kowloon Station and Austin Station, will be well connected to the Tung Chung Line, the Airport Express Line and the West Rail Line. The Public Transport Interchange, located at the north of the Terminus, will be only a short walk away, providing simple connection to bus and mini-bus facilities. A taxi rank will be contained within the West Kowloon Terminus.

This image will give you some idea of the distances involved: (XRL to TKT, that "green" building at the Top is Park Summit whilst under construction):
http://img832.images...35/xrltotkt.jpg :: XRL-thread : http://tinyurl.com/GEI-XRL

(6)
"I'm still new to HK so maybe my opinion does not count, but I went to a fair number of popular HKI residences and they were all terrible dumps. Belchers, Merton, Kornhill, etc - you could not pay me to live in the apartments I saw..."
- L---, on the Main property thread on AX

Sure - that's Hong Kong Island, and Islander mentality.

The brain-dead folk who live there refer to Kowloon as the "dark side", and refuse to visit, creating a barrier which allows those who are more open minded to cross the harbor (paying less than a cab for a quick MTR ride), and live better for less money.

And this stupidity is supported by the Expat Estate Agents, who make bigger commissions on those crappy-but-expensive flats than they ought to be getting for pushing expats into over-priced "luxury" flats in crowded Mid-Levels.

Those of us who live in Kowloon, or the NT are laughing...
=== ===

(6B)
Putting on my geek hat, here's the actual data:

Mid-levels, and Hong Kong Island are weak

Week: CCLI : TaikSh: RobinPl: Clovell/ Isl.Harb: ParkA: Waterf: Sorrent: TArch : C'ribC :
==== .
07/07: 119.69: 10,464 : 13,387 : 23,749 / 10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 :
06/30: 121.88: 12,021 : 13,502 : 23,950 / 10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 :
Peak
03/17: 123.66: 12,302 : 16,180 : 23,926 / 11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 :
YrEnd
12/30: 115.78: 11,665 : 14,985 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 :
======
Versus
YrEnd +3.28%: -10.3%: -10.7%: +5.81%/ -2.84%: +6.80%: +13.1%: -1.10%: -1.17%: +3.04%
Peak- - 3.21%: -14.9%: -17.2%: - 0.74%/ -10.6%: -3.34%: +3.44%: -1.06%: -0.97%: - 3.18%

Look at those HUGE drops in Taikoo Shing and Robinson Place, down -14.9%, and -17.2% from the peak.

Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung, is basically tracking the index, some 3% ahead of year-end, but 3% below the peak.

The real outperformance area seems to be Kowloon Central, where the Express Train to China will be completed in about 2 years time. Two properties (Sorrento and The Arch), were hovering around peak prices, while The Waterfront was more than 3% ABOVE the price at 3/17, when the Centaline Index hit its peak. Two properties in the Olympic area were mixed with Park Avenue outperforming the index since year-end by almost 4%, but Island Harborview, which is a longer walk from the XRL, down, but only -2.8% off year-end prices.

===
/source : http://hongkong.asia...ion-tkt-thread/


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 03:35 AM

Olympic / Tai Kok Tsui - Major Modern Developments

 

West-Kowloon-flats-silverseaA.jpg

Island Harbourview (1998) is the first private housing estate to be built in the newly reclaimed area. It is located next to Olympian City 1 and is built by Sun Hung Kai Properties. There are 9 blocks in total which forms an 'L' shape. Blocks 1,2,3,5 and 6 faces East/West while Blocks 7,8,9 and 10 face North/South. The estate has a clubhouse with many facilities such as a swimming pool and 2 badminton courts. Its location is 11 Hoi Fai Road Tai Kok Tsui, but its car entrance is at Hoi Fan Road (near the intersection with Hoi Fai Road)

Central Park is a private housing estate located in the area. It's one of the projects of MTR Olympic Station Phase II and is built on the reclaimed land of old Yau Ma Tei Typhoon Shelter. Developed by the consortium of MTR Corporation, Sino Land, Kerry Properties, Bank of China (Hong Kong) and China Overseas Land and Investment in 2000, it comprises 4 high-rise buildings (Block 1,2,3,5) with a total of 1,344 units.

Harbour Green is a private estate that's part of the Olympic Station Phase III project. It comprises five 48 or 56 floors towers with a total of 1,514 units. It was jointly developed by Sun Hung Kai Properties and MTR Corporation and completed in 2007.

 

Oly-LongBeach_zpsa57eb6c2.jpg

The Long Beach was developed by Hang Lung at 8 Hoi Fai Road provides 1829 units, and perhaps 1,000 units have not yet been offered for sale.

The Hermitage is a private estate located above the newly developed Olympian City 3.

Florient Rise (formerly Cherry Street Project, ) is a private estate in Cherry Street. It was jointly developed by Nan Fung Group and Urban Renewal Authority (URA) in 2008] and completed the construction in May 2009. It comprises three blocks with a total of 522 units. There's a residential block called "Hoi Ming Court" in the middle of the site which was excluded from the redevelopment project due to its young age and high acquisition cost. Florient Rise was built around Hoi Ming Court.

One Silversea is a private estate located at the waterfront site of the former Tai Kok Tsui Temporary Bus Terminus, it was developed by Sino Land and completed in 2006.

Imperial Cullinan ... (newest and most expensive property in area; built by Sun Hung Kai Properties)

Shining Heights, at 83 Sycamore Street, was developed by Hong Kong Ferry (Holdings) Company Limited and its parent company, Henderson Land Development. It was formerly Hong Kong Ferry Staff Quarters It comprises one tower with a total of 348 units, which was completed in 2009.

Metro Harborview :
===

/Wiki : http://en.wikipedia....ki/Tai_Kok_Tsui

(Older Properties)

Cosmopolitan Estates

Charming Gardens


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 04:33 AM

IVY STREET and PARK SUMMIT - are in the "heart" of Old Tai Kok Tsui

IVY Street is the old main shopping street, now gentrifying with many new restaurants.
PINE Street is catching up, as engineering shops become restaurants, and food marts.

ps0l.jpg
Black-n-White, on Ivy Street

hgcs.png

Head for the Bar at the Top of the Rosedale Hotel - to view the area from many stories up ... map w/o labels
847s.jpg

View from the Rosedale, Looking West
fpq2.jpg

Here's Park Summit - with the Black and gray-striped Rosedale Hotel in front, Looking East.
Park Summit Tower Two, is at the corner of Ivy St and Pine St., and there is also a new development
there, not yet completed, which is called Park Ivy.
rhrh.jpg

Map - Park Summit dominates the Ivy / Pine bend (along with the new Park Ivy ) / see : GOOG

IvyPineBend_zpsc744aebb.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 05:29 AM

RESTAURANTS along the Ivy St / Pine St. nexus

7lue.png

Restaurant List / I may even add some reviews later on this thread

Ivy Street
SOUTH-------------------------- :
#
061 : McDonalds
065 : Chinese Fried food
069 : Chinese Congee
073 : Fulum Restaurant (upstairs)
07? : Bakery
08? : Golden Sands
091 : Sunny Thai Restaurant
09? : Chinese, Red Pepper
101 : Valentino Chocolate
103 : Hai Nan Chicken
10? : Japan Sushi
105 : Sun Fung Wine Cellar
119 : SMART Pepperoni

NORTH-------------------------- :
070 : Share Tea
072 : Chinese, Large restaurant
080 : Park N Shop
090 : Korean Restaurant
092 : (Closed Restaurant)
09? : Noble
09? : Japanese Restaurant
100 : Black N White
102 : Iwate Zen Japanese
116 : Chinese, Hotpot
118 : Kebab and Curry
===

Photos ---

0174.jpg
Cosmopolitan Estates at the Corner of Ivy St., has a McDonald's Restaurant in the Ground floor

TKT Restaurants................. :: http://www.openrice....t...id=2005&s=1


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 12 August 2013 - 02:57 AM

"Hermitage Grand Chamber" in following photos

8zqt.png

LOOKING South towards Kowloon Station and the XRL
xx

 
Tai Kok Tsui side of WK Terminus / Hoi Wang Rd. etc

picture-12.png

eb4f453abc8c847e6f31742ecbe6_grande.jpg

(From the North, before Train station construction began)

wkterm3.jpg

rosedale-hotel-kowloon.jpg

(View from the Top of the Rosedale Hotel, looking West)

wktkt.gif
================


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 05:13 AM

Latest Price chart - Park Avenue / Central Park

 

waea.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 05:47 AM

j4fs.png

 

CCI index : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 05:32 AM

(Something about TKT shops at the end of this):

AX: http://hongkong.asia...s-new-centrals/

 

"OFFICE RENTS in Central may fall by 20 per cent with 18 months" - SCMP

Tenants are moving to outlying areas, where rents are up to 50 per cent lower

Some grade A buildings have been vacant for a year, as stubborn landlords refused to cut rents - Up to one million sf of space are unlet in Central.

Some small hedge funds have shut down, and left their spaces

CENTRAL : Estimates of Unlet space:
===
1998 : 3.4 mn sf
2003 : 2.5 mn sf
2013 : 1.1 mn sf

Causeway Bay and Quarry Bay : Rents are Half to 2/3rds of Central
======

 

INLINE-pine.jpg

In Pine St, in TKT, I have seen a big jump in vacant storefronts in the last two months, including now 4 Retail spaces in a row, with one of them having a notice saying the previous tenant would have to forfeit his deposit.

I think if rents fall, then prices will too, since yields had been stated to be only 1-2%, and such low yields are not sustainable when rents are starting to fall IMHO


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 Traineeinvestor

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 11:25 AM

Agree - too many landlords are asking for too much money. Vacancies are popping up in many areas on HK Island as well.



#12 DrBubb

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Posted 02 November 2013 - 12:00 AM

THE LONG BEACH / Notes on pricing

 

Note the near 11% premium (psf) on Tower 7, the "newest" Tower to be launched

 

Flat.No: BkOfChina: List.Price / Net = Per SFnet
======
t3.30b: $7.440m : $8.401m / 550 = $15,275 
t3.51b: $8.280m : $8.418m / 552 = $15,250
t3.51c: $8.280m : $8.376m / 552 = $15,174
t5.31c: $7.720m : $8.834m / 569 = $15,525
t6.50c: $8.670m : $8.441m / 554 = $15,236
= Aver: $8.078m : $8.494m / 555 = $15,304 x75%= $11,478 psf (mid and upper floors)
====
t7.47b: ======= : $9.808m / 560 = $17,514
t7.47c: ======= : $9.215m / 570 = $16,167
t7.47e: ====== : $10.085m / 562 = $17,945
= Aver: ======= : $9.703m / 564 = $17,204
 
t7.30b: ======= : $9.518m / 562 = $16,935
t7.30c: ======= : $8.943m / 569 = $15,717
t7.30e: ======= : $9.787m / 567 = $17,261
= Aver: ======= : $9.416m / 566 = $16,636
====
=T7ave ======= : $9.560m / 565 = $16,919 : +10.6% / mid and upper floors
 
Ceiling Heights
========== : mm's--- : /304.8
+ 5-/fl - 48/f : 2800mm : 9.186 ft :
+ 49th floor- : 2800mm : 9.186 ft :
+ 50th floor- : 3150mm : 10.33 ft : + 315mm : +11.3%
+ 51st floor- : 3100mm : 10.17 ft : + 300mm : +10.7%
+ 52nd floor : 3100mm : 10.17 ft
 
Compare:
Island Harbourview
j22b.png
 
Central Park/ Park Avenue
kkz8.png

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 11:55 AM

The first 80 units at LB - were priced right, and easily sold out

 

There were 1,565 cheques held for the 80 units - and the discount (to List prices)

was 18%, permitting a quick sale.

 

The new discount for the next 60 units is: 16% (2% less than before), but List prices are less attractive.

 

Now Hang Lung is offering some more 3BR flats :
 
In Tower 3 with an impaired view (the E units of 766 sf, net)
 
- at---- : List price : psf-net/ less 16% : psf-net
======
+ 23-E : $12,157M : $15,817 / $10,212M : $13,332
+ 35-E : $12,403M : $16,192 / $10,419M : $13,602
+ 47-E*: $12,678M : $16,508 / $10,650M : $13,867
======
 
In Tower 5 on lower floors (A units of 841 sf, net)
 
- at---- : List price : psf-net/ less 16% : psf-net
======
+ 05-A : $14,632M : $17,398 / $12,291M : $14,615
+ 20-A : $15,047M : $17,892 / $12,639M : $15,029
======
 
In Tower 6 middle, and higher floors (the B units of 766 sf, net)
 
- at---- : List price : psf-net/ less 16% : psf-net
======
+ 25-B : $12,701M : $16,581 / $10,669M : $13,928
+ 35-B : $12,932M : $16,883 / $10,863M : $14,181
+ 48-B*: $13,272M : $17,281 / $11,148M : $14,516
======
*768 sf, at 43rd/fl and higher

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 06:27 AM

A Neat Trick: LB is now selling at a PREMIUM to 2nd Hand
 
(I suppose the agents aren't telling their clients this,
because of the greater commissions they get from New Properties.
The crazy thing is:
Now the agent must "Sell" the property, and
then Hope the client wins the lucky draw to make a sale):
 
 
Not long ago, The Long Beach had 1,000 vacant flats to sell.
 
+ 80 are gone at 18% discounts to List prices
+ 60 are now on offer* at 16% discounts to List.
 
Most of the Remaining flats have "List" prices well above secondhand,
and the premium of List to secondhand is MORE than the discount. 
 
=====
*HL has planned a great "trick" for property buyers.
They are getting investors to focus on the discount, not the actual list prices, or prices net of discount.  
This trick will work, if people keep buying thinking they are getting a bargain because of the big discount.
 
But guess what: the LIST prices in Towers 7 and 8 are so high, even after a big discount, they will be paying
something ABOVE the second hand prices in the other "older" Towers.
 
Here's the back-up for this statement:
 
"older" towers (Towers 3,5,6): Originally launched in Oct. 2007, and later
 
THESE ARE LIST PRICES:
Flat.No: BkOfChina: List.Price / Net = Per SFnet = Premium to Bank Valuation
======
(T3,5,6)
t3.30b: $7.440m : $8.401m / 550 = $15,275 
t5.31c: $7.720m : $8.834m / 569 = $15,525
= Aver: $7.580m : $8.618m / 560 = $15,389 : 13.7% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC)
====
(Tw.8)
t8.29b: ======= : $9.056m / 550 = $16,465
t8.29e: ======= : $8,761m / 550 = $15,929
t8.29f : ====== : $10.456m / 566 = $18,473
t8.32b: ======= : $9.110m / 550 = $16,564
t8.32e: ======= : $8.814m / 550 = $16,025
= Aver: ======= : $9.239m / 553 = $16,707 : 23.4% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC)
 (Tw.7)
t7.30b: ======= : $9.518m / 562 = $16,935
t7.30c: ======= : $8.943m / 569 = $15,717
t7.30e: ======= : $9.787m / 567 = $17,261
= Aver: ======= : $9.416m / 566 = $16,636 : 22.9% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC)
 
 

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

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Posted 07 November 2013 - 07:43 AM

From AX: In reacton to the above post on

The Long Beach

==============

(1)

punter

They should just keep it OTP. There's no need for them to sell

 

(2)

OffThePeak

Yeah.
They have plenty of cash, and not many landholdings in HK
(Apart from their large rental portfolio.)

I am pretty sure, they will keep selling, as long as the market will absorb higher and higher prices.

They have done launch 2. Let's see if they get to steps 3, 4, ... and so on.

The big advantage they have now, is TLB is one of the last "new" projects in the Kowloon Station and Olympic Station area.

(The next West Kowloon "hotspot" might be Nam Cheong station, when SHKP's new project comes on stream there.)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 04:31 AM

(from an AX thread):

 

Further Update on The Long Beach
 
I double checked some information over the weekend, and came up with some slight different info.
 
There have been 4-5 batches of sales at TLB.
 
+ Since the original launch a few weeks ago, there have been two price RISES: +5%, and +1% in the LIST prices. (this was true on several flats I checked, but may not be exactly true on ALL the flats.)
 
+ Discounts have been cut from: 18% to 16%
 
+ Also, List prices on the flats in Tower 8, are perhaps 10-15% higher than in Towers 3,5,and 6 - for similar layouts, views, and floors.
 
Let's compare: (this is very approximate)
===
 
Tower : Orig.List: +5%+1%: -16% discount---- : 550 sfs
Twr.6 : $15,000 : $15,900 : $13,356 per sf. Net : $7.346 Mn
Twr.8 : $16,000 : $16,960 : $14,246 per sf. Net : $7.836 Mn
 
This is a rough estimate of the per square foot price of similar flats,
where the secondary market price for this flat might be:
+ $10,360 per sq. foot., and $14,000 psf, Net x 550= $7.700M
 
The overall conclusion is that most recent selling prices in Tower 8 are at or above the secondary market.  But agents are still pushing the "new" flats hard, since the commission they get from Hang Lung, the developer is 3%, versus the 1% commission they might get from selling secondhand.
 
There are now less than 10 flats left in the latest batch.  And one agent that I spoke to said he thought: "HL might halt further new sales.  They may hold back for high prices, since they have already sold over 200 flats at fair prices. And their habits is to sell a few batches at a time.  They still have all of Towers 1,2 and 9 to sell...  But they are very unpredictable."

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

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Posted 01 December 2013 - 01:41 AM

The Long Beach has released at New Price List:

29.Nov : http://www.hanglung....price-list.aspx

Prices are high enough, that prospective buyers are also view secondhand flats
(it would seem.) But agents are still mainly pushing the new flats, because of he higher commissions they can earn.

======

 

Pricing - on a high floor of Tower 7

=======
L1 : 23 Oct
7-47B : $9.808
7-47C : $9.215
==
L2 : 03 Nov / 07/11 Nov : + Pct.% : 19 Nov. : + Pct. % :
7-47B : $9.808 : $10.298 : +5.00% : $10.401: +1.00% :
7-47C : $9.215 : $ 9.678. : +5.02% : $ 9.773. : +0.98% : 
==
L3 : 29 Nov
7-48B : $10.443: +0.40%
7-48C : $ 9.812 : +0.40%
=====
Initial discount was 18%, and is now set at :
+ 16% (for buyers completing inside 60 days)
+ 14% (for buyers completing inside 90 days)
 
Want to Buy one of these flats on the 48th floor of Tower?
You cannot.  You can only Buy one of the 28 flats in the present batch.
(the highest floor in Tower 7 in this batch is on the 16th floor.)
Even then, you must summit a $300K cheque into the Lucky Draw which will be
held on 7 Dec. 2013, at 10 am.  Good luck in getting a low number.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 05:23 AM

FALSE Advertising at Imperial Cullinan (from AX):

 

L-1:

"Scanning through The Visionary & The Austin 200+ page brochures I noticed that they are fully devoid of any images representing what the estates are intended to look like. Websites, newspapers and ads are also turning up nothing. I'm assuming that there is a government regulation which prevents developers from releasing computer generated images of their estates now?

If so, what exactly is an owner-occupier thinking when they purchase a property that they cannot see and cannot access for 2+ years? They are buying a volume of a layout in suspended in space - no clue as what the exterior nor interior styles are like."

 

OTP : 

Yeah, it is risky.

But HK People and some mainlanders were long "educated" to prefer New properties, and to pay a premium for them.

There has been plenty of disappointment, when they finally get the key. Just look at the advertising for Imperial Cullinan, and the difference between ...
Video-1:
= =

(Can anyone explain the connection between the following Video-2 show and Imperial Cullinan? Was it just a promotion to give some mainland chinese buyers a mistaken impression about WHAT and WHERE I.C. was?):
Video-2:
http://www.youtube.c...h?v=xttN9P4ahKc

Compare these two Videos and THIS image:
OB-OV409_cullin_H_20110722043242.jpg

...with the final result:
IMG_1997.jpg
Video-3:
= =
(Awkwardly sandwiched between OneSilverSea and The Long Beach, but priced at a premium to its neighbors with better views.)

Plainly speaking, I.C.'s advertising was a Big Fat Lie ! 

(In hindsight, it appears that the advertising for I.C. was one of the "pinnacles" of false promotion in the HK property market.)

Like property promoters everywhere, HK Developers are skilled at selling Dreams - the reality often doesn't live up to it.

Still, the Olympic Station area is a good and pleasant place to live IMHO.

===

> AX: 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

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Posted 18 January 2014 - 09:35 AM

rqa7.jpg
/ The Long Beach is developed by Hang Lung at 8 Hoi Fai Road provides 1829 units /
 
UPDATE on TLB, (from OTP /AX)
 
The Long Beach is making steady progress on selling the remaining "leftover" flats.
 
0v4t.jpg : Top floor units : Very expensive
 
Two weeks ago, there were 17 flats still available. As of Saturday, it was down to just 10 flats, of which 3 were very high floor expensive units, at over $40 million.
 
There is only one "normal" E-flat left in Tower 3, from what I could see. (8th-floor).
 
I suppose people are waiting to see if Hang Lung will release another batch of "popular" units, that sell out quickly. Perhaps they will do that around Chinese New Year, at higher prices, if the market holds up well.
 
In the meantime, I would not be surprised to see some buyers snapping up secondhand flats, since the trend for the "new" ones has been steady price rises in each new batch.
 == ==
 
"Have they sold out the remaining units in TLB?" - P--r (on the CYL thread)
 
They were down to only 10 leftover flats, last time I checked - And it is probably less than that now. Some of those (at least 3), were very expensive ($40 Million+) large flats at the top of the building. The rest, are lower floors: with poor layouts, or no views.
 
So among the 20 "new" flats* they are about to launch, may be some of the more desirable layouts, that are likely to sell fast. They may raise the price again. And I know that the secondary market at TLB is starting to stir again.
 
The funny thing is that one of the banks (HSBC) cut their bank evaluations when the first batch was released at big discounts to test the market. BofC mostly held their old prices. Now that the "new" properties are selling at higher and higher prices, you would have expected HSBC to put valuations back up. Last time I checked they had not done it yet.
=== ===
 
Tower-7 Layout : source : T7 : T3-high
 
imjx.jpg
 
*In Edit:
I have seen the list. All 20 flats are D-Units in Tower 7.
The floors involved range from 5D ($14,307K: $17,773psf-N, before discount) to 47D ($15,888K: $19,165psf-N.) And the next date of sale is Jan. 17th. HL is now collecting cheques for the lottery.
 

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 Traineeinvestor

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Posted 19 February 2014 - 12:49 PM

Dr Bubb

 

Thanks for the information on TKT/Olympic and the tour yesterday.

 

Some very brief comments here: http://aprivateportf...i-kok-tsui.html

 

As an investor, the small retail and residential units in older buildings are far more appealing than expensive new residential units.






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