Jump to content


Photo

Ten Nifty stocks - with 20% of the S&P500's MktCap


5 replies to this topic

#1 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 18 April 2017 - 04:46 AM

Ten Nifty stocks - mostly with not so nifty P/E's

 

These 10 stocks have 20% of the MktCap of the S&P-500.

But produce only 13% as much of the earnings.

Might these be the best stocks for shorting (or Put buying) ?

 

There used to be favored stocks trading at high PE ratiios.  They were called the "Nifty 50"

Here are 9 (?) well known stocks I found trading at high prices.

 

Charts: 5-yrs : #1 : #2 : #3 / 1-yr : #4 : #5 : #6 / 10d : #7 : #8 : #9 / Lead=#2 : Lag : Mid : Mid-1yr

 

"JoMoSo" vs. SPX : MIDwo-LT : 5-years ;10-years : 10-yrs-wo-AAPL : JNJ. JPM, MSFT = JOhn - MOrg - SOft

Midwo-All_zpshp32tjln.gif

 

In 2007. JPM peaked before the SPX

 

 

 

The list is the Top 10 companies by Market Capitalization, as of early 2017

 

AAPL / Apple Inc ... all data : $141.83 / Change: +0.78 / PE: 16.99 : yield: 1.61%
AAPL_zpse95wy5c2.gif

.

GOOG / Alphabet inc.   ... all data : : $837.17 / Change: +13.61 / PE: 30.03 : yield: n/a

GOOG_zpseox9jxtj.gif

.

MSFT / Microsoft Corp. ... all data : $ 65.48 / Change: +0.53 / PE: 30.89 : yield: 2.38%

MSFT_zpsqtozaxnx.gif

.

AMZN / Amazon.com Inc. ... all data : $901.99 / Change: arrow_up_sm.gif +17.32 / PE: 183.9 : yield: n/a

AMZN_zps9s7esn7w.gif

.

FB / Facebook Inc. ... all data : : $141.42 / change: +2.03 / PE: 43.38 : yield: n/a

FB_zpszjup9gcw.gif

.=====

 

AAPL  / Apple Inc ................... all data : $141.83 / $744.1bn : 5.24bn / PE: 16.99 : yield: 1.61%

GOOG / Alphabet inc.   .......... all data : $837.17 / $578.8bn : 601mn / PE: 30.03 : yield: n/a

MSFT / Microsoft Corp. .....,,.. all data : $ 65.48 / $506.0bn : 7.73bn / PE: 30.89 : yield: 2.38%
AMZN / Amazon.com Inc. ...... all data : $901.99 / $431.1bn : 478mn / PE: 183.9 : yield: n/a

FB       / Facebook Inc. .......... all data : $141.42 / $409.7bn : 2.90bn / PE: 43.38 : yield: n/a

=============================== : SubT : ====== $2,669.7 bn / PE: 61.04 : yield: 1.99%
BRK.A / Berkshire Hathaway  all data : $246,700/$405.7bn : 1.64m / PE: 16.85 : yield: n/a

XOM  / Exxon Corp. ................ all data : $ 81.58 / $345.9bn : 4.24bn / PE: 43.57 : yield: 3.68%

JNJ    / Johnson & Johnson .. all data : $125.72 / $340.8bn : 2.71bn / PE: 21.38 : yield: 2.55%
JPM   / JPMorgan Chase &Co all data : $ 85.86 / $305.5bn : 3.56bn / PE: 13.22 : yield: 2.33%
WFC  / Wells Fargo  ................ all data : $ 52.72 / $263.4bn : 5.00bn / PE: 13.19 : yield: 2.88%
================================ : SubT :====== $1,661.3 bn / PE: 21.64 : yield: 2.86%
================================ : SubT :====== $2,669.7 bn / PE: 61.04 : yield: 1.99%
================================ : total : ====== $4,331.0 bn / PE: 41.34 : yield: 2.57% (ave. of those 7 with divs.)
SPX / S&P 500 Index....... all data : Log : $ 2,349.:-$21,188.bn: 9.02b/ PE: 26.37 : yield: 1.95%
----------------------------What share of SPX is Top 10? : 20.44%: Earnings: $105bn/ $803bn : 13%

 

SPX-log_zps5apioihi.gif
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 18 April 2017 - 06:30 AM

The Next Five

.

BRK.A / Berkshire Hathaway ... all data : $246,700 / change: +1,700 / PE: 16.85 : yield: n/a

BRKA_zps6yzspwsp.gif

.

JNJ / Johnson & Johnson ... all data  : $125.72 / change: +0.73 / PE: 21.38 : yield: 2.55%

JNJ_zps7qmpitwv.gif

 

JPM / JPMorgan Chase &Co ... all data : $ 85.86 / change: +1.46 / PE: 13.22 : yield: 2.33%

jpm2_zpsdbcdqw6n.gif

.

WFC / Wells Fargo  ... all data : : $52.72 / change: +1.37 / PE: 13.19 : yield: 2.88%

wfc_zpsalaqgegd.gif

.
XOM / Exxon Corp. ... all data : : $81.58 / change: -0.11 / PE: 43.57 : yield: 3.68%

XOM2_zpssfvrt6fa.gif

======

 

AAPL  / Apple Inc ................... all data : $141.83 / $744.1bn : 5.24bn / PE: 16.99 : yield: 1.61%
AMZN / Amazon.com Inc. ...... all data : $901.99 / $431.1bn : 478mn / PE: 183.9 : yield: n/a
BRK.A / Berkshire Hathaway  all data : $246,700/$405.7bn : 1.64mn / PE: 16.85 : yield: n/a
FB       / Facebook Inc. .......... all data : $141.42 / $409.7bn : 2.90bn / PE: 43.38 : yield: n/a
GOOG / Alphabet inc.   .......... all data : $837.17 / $578.8bn : 601mn / PE: 30.03 : yield: n/a
=====

JNJ    / Johnson & Johnson .. all data : $125.72 / $340.8bn : 2.71bn / PE: 21.38 : yield: 2.55%
JPM   / JPMorgan Chase &Co all data : $ 85.86 / $305.5bn : 3.56bn / PE: 13.22 : yield: 2.33%
MSFT / Microsoft Corp. ......,,.. all data : $ 65.48 / $506.0bn : 7.73bn / PE: 30.89 : yield: 2.38%
WFC  / Wells Fargo  ................ all data : $ 52.72 / $263.4bn : 5.00bn / PE: 13.19 : yield: 2.88%
XOM  / Exxon Corp. ................ all data : $ 81.58 / $345.9bn : 4.24bn / PE: 43.57 : yield: 3.68%


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 18 April 2017 - 08:23 PM

SPX - vs. the 3-4 MID-return stocks : MSFT, JPM, AAPL, JNJ

 

"If the Middle Gives way, the Whole it cannot Hold"

5-years;

MID-5yr_zpsc8ct4iws.gif

 

"JoMoSo" = JO-hnson&Johnson, jpMO-rgan, microSOft

10-years : 10-yrs-wo-AAPL :

MIDwo-10yr_zpsbthr7x3r.gif

 

"JoMoSo" vs. SPX : MIDwo-LT : 5-years ;10-years : 10-yrs-wo-AAPL : JNJ. JPM, MSFT = JOhn - MOrg - SOft

Midwo-All_zpshp32tjln.gif

 

Stock----- : 04/18/17 : Mon./Yr: Strike : Last : ATM.vl (Pct.---/ Time* 1yr. Eqv/ 0.4 : Vol. : --Range-- : as a% :

JO / JNJ -- : @121.82 : Jan2018: $125p: $8.38 : $6.72 (5.52% /0.866= 6.37%/0.4 = 15.9%) $5.80-19.85: 42.2%
MO / JPM- : @$85.16 : Jan2018: $ 85.p: $6.58 : $6.64 (7.80% /0.866= 9.01%/0.4 = 22.5%) $4.82-26.60: 24.7%
SO / MSFT: @$65.39 : Jan2018: $ 65.p: $4.75 : $4.95 (7.56% /0.866= 8.74%/0.4 = 21.9%) $4.15-16.80: 28.3%

Ap / AAPL : @141.20 : Jan2018: $140p: 10.23 : 10.80 (7.65% /0.866= 8.83%/0.4 = 22.1%) $8.85-52.84: 19.4%
===
Spx/ SPY - : @233.87 : Jan2018: $240p: 14.28 : 11.45 (4.90% /0.866= 5.65%/0.4 = 14.1%) 12.41-43.91: 32.5%

XLF/ Banks: @$23.08 : Mar2018 $ 24.p: $2.14 : $1.62 (7.02% /0.957= 7.34%/0.4 = 18.3%)

XLE/ OilCos @$68.81 : Jan2018: $ 70.p: $5.40 : $4.90 (7.12% /0.866= 8.22%/0.4 = 20.6%) $4.00-12.40: 43.5%
VIX / Volat : @14.42% : SpotVix : Range: 9.97-26.72: 54.0%
===

*Time: SQRT (8/12mos: 0.866) :
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 19 April 2017 - 12:53 AM

Uber, and the madness in private equity

 

Recent valuation: $70 Billion, while making big losses. maybe $2-3 billion in current year

 

20170325_WBC243.png

 

Market Values of private equity deals got wildly high - above publicly traded companies.

Will the crash start in private equity?

 

UBER ISSUES: PREZ QUITS...

Uber is facing the biggest crisis in its short history

The Economist-23 Mar 2017
They include Uber's head of mapping, a former head of self-driving car ...
Yet Uber's enormous valuation also depends on the firm pulling off a ...
 

What Happens If Uber Fails?

The Atlantic-22 Mar 2017
Then you have a company like Uber, valued at $70 billion despite massive losses, and beleaguered by one scandal after another. In 2017 ...

The dot-com collapse two decades ago erased $5 trillion in investments. Ever since, people in Silicon Valley have tried to guess exactly when the next tech bubble will burst, and whether the latest wave of investment in tech startups will lead to an economic crash. “A lot of people who are smarter than me have come to the conclusion that we’re in a bubble,” said Rita McGrath, a professor of management at Columbia Business School. “What we’re starting to see is the early signals.”

Those signals include businesses closing or being acquired, venture capitalists making fewer investments, fewer companies going public, stocks that appear vastly overpriced, and startup valuations falling.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 19 April 2017 - 05:14 AM

VALUATION Measures

 

Shiller ratio: Price to (long term) Earnings

Shiller-PE-ratio.jpg

 

> Shiller PE Ratio table: http://www.multpl.co...er-pe/table?f=m

 

why-the-shiller-pe-ratio-is-totally-useless-for-investors

why-the-shiller-pe-ratio-is-totally-usel

> http://www.businessi...pe-ratio-2011-4

 

Cycles

Past-and-Present-SP-500-Valuations.jpg

 

 

Gold to S&P500

gold_divided_by_sp500_1989_2014.jpg

 

Strong support for Gold at 50% of SPX

Gold-toSPX_zpsxfiy8hgo.png

 

At 50%: Buy Gold / against: Sell Stocks (SPX)


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 19 April 2017 - 05:20 AM

Momentum Measures

 

T-Scale moves

 

T-scale_zpsb6zwmvip.jpg

T-scale  for the Last 3 years - using 252d (12 mos = 1 year) rather than 200d MA

 

SPX-252dMA2_zpsovlxeyvt.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users