Jump to content


Photo

DrBubb's Diary - Apr. 2017 Trading - v.99


96 replies to this topic

#1 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 04:25 AM

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2017.    The Diary's 9th Year

 

Diary-2017_zpsmnvqxcki.jpg

 

"Trump is creating a lot of Hope"

Comment: " Great to hear a successful Jewish businessman like Sam Zell speaking such sense.

If only the majority of his tribes was so sound and practical."
Sam Zell does not like Sanctuary Cities, and is fed of with excessive regulation.

 

: 1_1_1_GEI-2016_zpsq7xy2nqg.jpg

: "A Year of Growing Discernment" ?

 

THAT was 2016. Now we are in 2017:

GEI-2017_zpsk5hhsgyl.jpg

 

DrBubb's Diary - Apr. 2017 Trading - v.99

 

================

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) ... update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPY-Ratio //: sjw :

FRT_zps3t8z3mk2.gif

 

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. These two have often traded counter-cyclically to each other.

 

"US Stocks-in-Euros" ... SPX-to-FXE or SPY-to-FXE Ratio ... update

SPX-inFXE_zpsnqtrealp.png

 

This Ratio - SPX to Euros seems to move in a nice clear channel

 

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

LQD-etc_zpsjkvrvgal.png

 

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious.  By the end of 2014, we saw a FULL YEAR of decline in this would-be bellwether, yet SPY has gone on rising.  So the value of this indicator has become suspect.
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

"Big Three" Charts (SPY, GLD, DXY) ... 10d-Intraday : 6mos-D : 2yrs-D : 5yrs-D // CUvsGLDvsCRB

CU-etc_zpsyjgk5pyx.gif

 

 

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY lower
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula:  (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

 

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :
 

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b cox cvn


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 04:27 AM

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
03-31: 206.43 - 1.82: 127.M: 15.29 : 18.24 - 0.23: 113.66 - 0.09: 4.38M: 1,185.5 $47.49* 98.406 +0.432: 130.69 +0.28: 00: 000/ 000: 2800
06-30: 205.85 +0.43: 155.M: 18.23 : 17.76 - 0.14: 112.31 - 0.70: 7.54M: 1,172.1 $59.09* 95.516 +0.541: 117.46 -0.82 : 11, 118/ 086, 1887
09-30: 192.13 +0.50: 142.M: 24.50 : 13.74 +0.33: 106.86 - 1.12: 7.19M: 1,114.5 $45.34* 96.282 +0.384 : 123.54 - 0.43: 04: 133/ 104, 2853
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

2016
01-29: 193.72 +4.61: 182.M: 20.20 : 14.21 +0.35: 106.95 +0.41 : 7.92M: 1118.4 $33.74* 99.531 +0.950 : 127.30 +1.07 :

02-29: 193.56 - 1.53: 109.M: 20.55 : 19.38 +0.69: 118.64 +1.53 : 11.5M: 1239.3 $33.90* 98.150 - 0.030 : 130.98 +0.57 : 00, 075/ 000 , 2,143
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50 : 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54 : 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* 94.630 -0.0.99 : 130.61 +0.92 : 01 ,094/ 055 , 2,950
04-29: 206.33 - 1.11 : 124.M: 15.70 : 25.83 +1.55: 123.65 +2.36 : 18.2M: 1294.9 $45.90* 93.018 - 0.448 : 129.38 +0.33 : 0?, 060/ ???  , 2800
05-31: 209.84 - 0.40 : 88.7M: 14.19 : 22.58 +0.30: 116.06 +0.44 : 8.06M: 1217.5 $48.83* 95.861 +0.161 : 130.16 +0.31 : 0?, 088/ ???  , 2651
06-30: 209.48 +2.82 : 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63 : 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* 95.809 +0.046 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ ???  , 1941
07-29: 217.12 +0.35 : 70.1M: 11.87 : 30.59 +0.84: 128.98 +1.32 : 12.9M: 1357.9 $41.60* 95.517 - 1.044 : 141.56 +1.17 : 0?, 064/ ???  , 2781

08-31: 217.38 - 0.62 : 71.9M: 13.42 : 25.42 -0.42 : 124.78 -0.25 : 13.2M: 1311.4 $44.70* 95.985 - 0.050 : 139.87 +0.20 : 03, 067/  237 , 5200

09-30: 216.30 +1.62 : 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 : $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24 / 04, 096 : 412 , 5556

10-31: 212.55 +0.01 : 55.9M: 17.06 : 24.52 +0.71: 121.94 +0.36:  7.09M: 1273.1 : $46.86* $98.44 +0.10 : 131.25 +0.80 / 10, 094 : 620 , 5200
11-30: 220.38 - 0.53: 92.0M: 13.33 : 20.83 - 0.40 : 111.75 - 1.52: 10.9M: 1173.9 : $49.44* 101.54 + 0.59 : 120.24 - 1.98 / 02, 107 : 311 , 5561
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 : $53.72* 102.38  - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18 / 03, 096: 360 , 4840
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02  00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 + 1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 : $52.80* $99.74  - 0.62 : 119.84  +0.57 / 08 120: 4554, 10,254
====

 

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

Feb

27: 237.11 +0.37 48.4M: 12.09 : 22.84 - 1.29: 119.12 - 0.58 8.99M: 1258.8 : $54.05* 101.16 +0.04 : 121.29 - 0.72/ 00, 076; 000, 3,525

28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 : $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 07, 083; 216. 3,741

==

Mar

31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 : $50.60* 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 05, 115 : 210, 5,967

Apr.

03: 235.33 - 0.41 74.9M: 12.38 : 23.20 +0.38: 119.35 +0.63 6.05M: 1254.4 : $50.24* 100.48 - 0.61 : 121.67 +1.21/ 10, 010 : 080, 0,080
04: 235.48 +0.15 48.6M: 11.79 : 23.45 +0.25: 119.62 +0.27 4.56M: 1258.4 : $51.03* 100.49 +0.01 : 121.01 - 0.66/ 03, 013 : 123, 0,203

05: 234.78 - 0.70 98.5M: 12.89 : 23.48 +0.03: 119.62 Unch 7.81M: 1248.2 : $51.15** 100.50 +0.28 : 121.38 +0.37/ 01, 014 : 347. 0,550

06: 235.44 + 0.66 00.0M: 12.39 : 23.51 +0.03: 119.19 - 0.43 00.0M: 1253.3 : $51.70* 100.72 +0.22 : 131.30 - 0.08/
07: 235.20 - 0.24 61.0M: 12.87 : 23.50 - 0.01: 119.46 +0.28 12.1M: 1257.3 : $52.24* 101.13 +0.41 : 120.71 - 0.49/ 00, 23 : 000, 816
#

10: 235.34 +0.14 60.7M: 14.05 : 23.65 +0.15: 119.46 Unch. 4.59M: 1253.9 : $53.08* 101.06 - 0.07 : 121.27 +0.56 /  00, 35 : 000, 1351

11: 235.06 - 0.28 80.0M: 15.07 : 24.36 +0.71: 121.19 +1.73 12.4M: 1274.5 : $53.40* 100.73 - 0.33 : 122.42 +1.15 / 02, 37 : 170, 1521
12: 234.03 - 1.03 00.0M: 15.81 : 24.57 +0.21: 122.02 +0.83 00.0M: 1278.1 : $53.11* 100.18 - 0.55 : 123.09 +0.67 /
13: 232.51 - 1.52 73.5M: 15.96 : 24.54 - 0.03: 122.60 +0.58 9.34M: 1288.5 : $53.18* 100.58 + 0.40 : 123.47 +0.38 / 00, 43 : 000, 2000

#

17: 234.57 +2.06 57.1M: 14.66 : 24.47 - 0.07: 122.24 - 0.36 8.38M: 1291.9 : $52.65* 100.30 -0.27 : 123.09 - 0.38/ 00, 52 : 000, 2800

18: 233.87 - 0.70 74.3M: 14.42 : 24.27 - 0.20: 122.82 +0.58 10.8M: 1294.1 : $52.85* $99.50 -0.80 : 124.70 +1.61/ 09, 61 : 520, 3320

19: 233.44 - 0.43 60.7M: 14.93 : 23.39 - 0.88: 121.73 - 1.09 8.39M: 1283.4 : $50.85* $99.82 +0.32 : 124.02 - 0.68/ 02, 63 : 300, 3620

20: 235.34 +1.90 83.0M: 14.15 : 23.58 +0.19 : 121.96 +0.23 11.7M: 1283.8 : $50.71* $99.83 +0.01 : 123.54 - 0.48/ 01, 64 : 080, 3700

21: 234.59 - 0.75 91.1M: 14.63 : 23.61 +0.03: 122.31 +0.35 15.1M: 1289.1 : $49.62* $99.75 - 0.08 : 123.54 Unch./ 02, 66 : 167, 3867

#

24: 237.17 +2.58 106.M: 10.84 : 23.20 - 0.41: 121.48 - 0.83 10.7M: 1277.5 : $49.23* $99.10 - 0.65 : 122.93 - 0.61/ 00, 75 : 000, 4945

25: 238.55 +1.38 68.6M: 10.76 : 22.22 - 0.98: 120.25 - 1.23 10.3M: 1267.2 : $49.56* $98.81 - 0.29 : 121.45 - 1.48/ 07, 82 : 812, 5757

26: 238.40 - 0.15 71.6M: 10.85 : 22.26 +0.04: 120.84 +0.59 9.48M: 1264.2 : $49.62* $98.96 - 0.02 : 122.12 +0.67/ 02, 84 : 500, 6257

27: 238.60 +0.20 46.9M: 10.36 : 21.81 - 0.45: 120.39 - 0.45 8.17M: 1265.9 : $48.97* $99.19 +0.23 : 122.08 - 0.04/ 02, 86 : 480, 6737

28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 : $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 04, 90 : 530, 7267


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 04:29 AM

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: Dec.31, 2016 )

 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - to 12/31/16 : $134.85, 2016 range: $93.64 to 138.82 : +48.25% - beta 1.845

... All : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015last-12mos

IWM-2016D_zpsvczsgleh.gif


EIGHT KEY CHARTS 
=================

- Watch for the 76d-MA (blue) Crossing the 987d-MA (yellow), or

- The 52wk MA crossing the 330wk-MA -on Weekly chart

Updates: (updated at end Dec. 2016) - some updates still needed
=====

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53, 2016 range: 181.02 to 228.34 : +26.14% - beta 1.00

 Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over soon

SPY-2016D_zpsbw9fjuai.gif

 

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13, 2016 range: 116.80 to 143.62 : +22.96% - beta 87.8%

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

TLT-2016D_zpswgazwznt.gif

 

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46, 2016 range: $23.96 to $26.77 : +11.73% - beta 44.9%

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but looking very tired

UUP-2016D_zpsbbmd6if7.gif

 

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 2016 range: $07.67 to $12.45 : +62.32% - beta 2.38

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : 10yrL :  Price is battling that old Downtrend

USO-log-2016D_zps6lkbrkzg.gif

 

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP... to 12/31/16 : $75.32, 2016 range: $49.93 to $78.45 : +57.11% - beta 2.185

Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is DOWN, reversing?

Old-trend-was-accelerating ... as the uptrend ended

XLE-2016D_zpslfvxasu2.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016 range: $07.67 to $12.45 : +62.32% - beta 2.38

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

OIH-2016D_zpsk0ng8zdi.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61, 2016 range: 102.49 to 131.15 : +27.96% - beta 1.07

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

GLD-2016D_zpspggb8zw9.gif

 

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92, 2016 range: $12.40 to $31.79 : +156.4% - beta 5.98

GDX  ... All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

GDX-2016D_zpsh4dqzeel.gif

 

HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data-update :

HUI-2016D_zpsuihvykng.gif

 

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

ShCompL-2016D_zps5mdil9ec.gif

 

===== Links to other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : ??

PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new, 

=====


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 04:31 AM

BRADLEY Model : 
TURN dates
2015 : May 10, May 25, June 8, Sept. 23, Oct. 17
2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, -Jan.4, +Jan.17
====
Model for 2016:

2016-SP-500-Bradley-Siderograph-Turn-Dat


SPY... 2015-2017: Dec.31, 2016: $223.53 / Mar.01, 2017: $ 239.78 +$16.25 : + 7.26% on the Year

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, / -Jan.4, +Jan.17

2017-SPY_zpsk3ozpf8p.gif

 
Model for 2017:
SP_500_Bradley_Siderograph.png
===

 

Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks... In early July (when the Bradley model peaked), TLT hit new highs.

TLT... 2015-2017 : Dec.31, 2016: $119.13 / Mar.01, 2017: $119.47 : + $0.34 : + 0.29% on the Year

2017-TLT_zps0c0kco7b.gif

 

USD trade-weighted:

DXY ... 2015-2017DXY-all-data : 10d : Dec.31, 2016: $102.36 / Mar.01, 2017: $101.77 : - $0.59 : - 0.57% on the Year

2017-DXY_zpsm6zp1aug.gif

 

 

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX :

UGLD-vsGDX_zpsyqydt5ql.gif


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 04:37 AM

I said last month: "The current cycle may tell us a lot about where Gold is headed in 2017-18"

So far, it is not living up to its most Bullish potential,though the price has made some progress

 

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

 

Here's what I expected from the time of the "expected Dec. Cyclical low"

 

GLD: update: end-may: $116.06 +0.44/ UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840: $ 898.5 /7.76= $115.80 : HK-3081: $29.35 r-30.61

GLD-12mos_zpsxmqnwhs4.gif

 

I managed to pick up some GLD calls the last day of 2015, ie 12/31.

(I went for the GLD March $103-calls, paying $2.14 per call.)

I also bought Jan.18 GLD and Feb.17 NUGT Calls on the Dec. 2016 Low.

 

Gold-toUSD_zps2zk6n4gi.png

 

... continues: Low, Dec.15th: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

 

Gold-toDXY_zpsehk68ypw.png

 

 

 

Here's what happened - a Nice Rally !  But it may be petering out as we go into March (and April) ?

 

Cycles since GLD started trading

I ran this chart before selling about US$100k of Gold yesterday

 

GLD ... All-data

gld-cyc-0_zpsw1racqh3.gif

 

I was concerned that gold was running higher "on its own", without the participation of Gold shares.

and I thought the 4-6 mos cycle might be rolling over

 

I also produced this busy chart, expecting that NUGT might test expected support at about $10.00

(In my own chart work, I am accustomed to looking at such busy charts.)

nugt-12mo_zpswwldd0zz.gif

 

Later in the day, we saw a sharp drop in GDX (-5.35%) and in NUGT (-16.07%)

 

NUGT ... 12 mos : Last: $9.45 - $1.81 : -16.07%

nugt_zps1qvgqarn.gif

 

What we saw in the summer was: Gold chopped along in a high range, while GDX came down,

resulting in a GDX/GLD ratio that looks like this:

 

GDX-toGLD_zps07dbaqwx.png


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 04:45 AM

A Disappointing month - as the Loony left, and the Lie-Stream Media has tried to black Trump everywhere

 

"His Best Speech yet"

Krauthammer: This should have been Trump's inaugural address

 

President Trump Full Speech to Congress 2/28/17

Published on Feb 28, 2017

In his finest hour, President Trump delivers a speech for the history books.

 

OTHER Comments:

======

Newt Gingrich:

Gingrich 'blown away' by President Trump's 'best speech'

"Not what the Democrats expect from a Republican President"

"A desire to get very big things done..."

 

Chris Wallace:

‘I Feel Like Tonight Donald Trump Became the President of the United States’

 

"Now everyone is going to have to accept this fact."

 

Some, like Judge Jeanine are frustrated by the old PTW being so obstructionist

 

Judge Jeanine: The left (still) can't get over their election loss

 

"Praytell Perez (you vlle scumbag!) what are the VALUES you want him to live up to?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsK7seojOuA
Published on Apr 1, 2017

President Trump is doing the job we hired him to do

 

"Imagine a President who does what he says, and can see it through to the end goal"


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 04:48 AM

(Tony Cadaro's thought-piece on the Dollar is a cracker)

 

Time to repair the deflating US Dollar

 

Every century the US has been existence there has been a new USD. And we believe it is time for a new US Dollar in the 21st century. In the following paragraphs we hope to explain why this is required, and how this could be accomplished in the coming years. First a little history.

In the 18th century (1792) the US established the first USD with the one ounce Silver coin. There was no paper currency only Silver and Gold coins. The US was on a Silver standard, and one ounce of Silver was worth $1.

 

Forty years later in the 19th century (1832) the US officially went on a Gold standard. One ounce Gold coins were produced at a face value of $20 each, and the one ounce Silver coins retained their $1 valuation. Paper currencies sprung up from time to time, but they all eventually became worthless.

In the 20th century (1900) the US produced its first official paper currency. These paper $20 dollar bills were backed 100% by Gold, and were termed Gold Certificates. There were also Silver certificates that were obviously priced at the lesser value. $20 Gold coins and $1 Silver coins continued to be produced as well. The Gold certificates were completely redeemable into Gold at any bank. In 1933 FDR called for a bank holiday, called in all the Gold in the country, made it illegal for Americans to own Gold, and raised the benchmark price of Gold from $20 to $35. Gold certificates were now a thing of the past, and the Treasury started producing Federal Reserve Notes. Then in 1971 Nixon took the USD completely off the Gold standard, and it was legal for Americans to own Gold again.

 

In summary. A Silver coin standard in 1792. A Gold coin standard in 1832. Paper Gold/Silver Certificates in 1900. Then Federal Reserve notes in 1933. This is where it stands now. Each century a new US Dollar. So why do we need a new US Dollar?

Just after the forming of the US the industrial revolution began. Prior to that the colonies were 100% agricultural. In the decades that followed, manufacturing and transportation of goods started to play a larger and larger role in the economy. What agriculture and manufacturing have in common is that they are both dependent on commodity prices. Raw materials for the manufacturing of goods; and supply/demand of foods, grains, cotton, and tobacco. The economy was commodity driven.

When the economy grew, it was because demand was rising and this was inflationary. When the economy contracted, it was because demand was declining and this was deflationary. It other words the economy was not as we know it today: expansion and contraction. It was inflation and deflation. Nearly every expansion was inflationary/growth, and nearly every contraction a deflationary/depression.

 

usd-pp-since-1774.jpg?w=640&h=416

The purchasing power of the USD, with a fixed asset priced behind it, quite naturally declined during inflationary periods, and rose during deflationary periods. With prices rising items cost more. With prices declining items cost less. In an expansion/depression economy, inflation/deflation was somewhat self-correcting for the purchasing power of the USD as noted in the chart above. This all ended with the last, and great, depression of the 1930’s.

==

>MORE: https://caldaro.word...ting-us-dollar/


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 07:27 AM

Is Dash now Trash? / see: Dash thread

 

It seems to have lost half its value in only a few days

 

Dash went from over 0.100 (BTC?) on 3/25, to recent 0.047

======================

 

/ 1 /

Mar 3, 2017 - At the price of US$46.09 per coin, the total market cap sits at ... However, some people were betting the Dash price would crash and opened ...

 

/ 2 /

Altcoins Will Burst, Dash Will Crash: Vinny Lingham - CoinTelegraph

Mar 14, 2017 - Cointelegraph asked him to explain that and he said Dash price is going to crash. March has been an exciting month for Dash with so many ...
 
/ 3 /
13 hours ago - The price of DASH had been hovering slightly below or slightly above the $10 mark for several months leading up to the… by digicrypt.

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 08:33 AM

THE BATTLE against the Fake News intensifies 

As Trump goes after the pedos, and the leftist politicians freak out

-

Exclusive! Matt Drudge Warns of Traitors Inside The Government

-

Matt Drudge Crashes Savage Nation To Honor Great Patriot

Matt Drudge on The Savage Nation (3/31/2017)

(copy - in case it gets deleted):

RARE MATT DRUDGE INTERVIEW WITH MICHAEL SAVAGE MARCH 31 2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mZa_CeZ1J44

Published on Apr 2, 2017

Matt Drudge, the editor of the highly influential Drudge Report, visited Michael Savage’s San Francisco-based national radio show in-studio Friday to celebrate the talk host’s 75th birthday. After sharing Chinese food with Savage, Drudge surprisingly got behind “The Savage Nation” microphone and took a couple of calls, declaring, “We’re trying to save this young Trump administration. I do think there is a crisis, on many fronts … “ Personally, I think President Trump will be alright in the long run, but Drudge's correct by stating he's been dealt a bad hand, having to endure vicious, never-ending attacks from the RINOs, Democrats, and the Lame-Stream-Media. So long as his support base of constituents stick with him and speak up on his behalf, Trump's presidency should eventually succeed.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 09:42 AM

SUMMARY of Friday's Closing Levels

 

Price : (06/26) (12/31) (04/01) Chg %: (07/01) : (09/30) : (12/30) / (01/27)  (02/24) (03/03) : (03/10) (03/17) : (03/24) (03/31)
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2  === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1226.5 : 1201.4 : 1230.4 : 1248.5 : 1251.2 :
GLD : 112.56 : 101.46 : 116.93  ----- z : 128.41 : 125.64 : 109.61 / 113.49 : 119.70 : 117.51 : 114.72 : 116.99 : 118.86 : 118.72 :
GDX : $18.09 : $13.72 : $20.12 ----- z : $29.05 : $26.43 : $20.95 / $23.22 : $24.13 : $22.20 : $21.73 : $22.67 : $22.92 : $22.81 :
Ratio: R6.222: R7.395 : R5.811 ----- z : R4.420 : R4.754 : r5.232 / R4.888 : r4.961 : r5.293 : R5.279 : r5.161 : r5.185 r5.---(/10.??)
Ratio 16.07%: 13.52%: 17.21% ----- z : 22.62%: 21.04%: 19.11% / 20.45% 20.16%: 18.89% 18.94%: 19.38%: 19.28%: 1??? (GDx54.27 )
Gdxj : $24.86 : $19.21 : $28.40: ----- z: $45.38 : $44.29 : $31.55 / $36.87 : $40.09 : $35.53 : $34.69 : $36.28 : $36.20 : $35.98 :
Spdr : 706. E : 642.37 : 815.est ----- z : 953.91 : 947.95 : 822.17 / 803.0E : 841.17 : 840.58 : 825.22 : 834.10 : 832.62 : 832.32 = 26.76m
Au/S : R-1.66 : R-1.65 : R- 1.52 ----- z :  R-1.41 : R-1.39 : r1.401 / R1.48E: R1.496 : R1.47 : R1.456 : R1.475 : R1.499 : R1.???
TLT - : 115.23 : 120.58 : 130.68 ----- z : 140.57 : 137.51 : 119.13 / 119.63 : 122.01 : 119.35 : 117.25 : 118.64 : 120.88 : 120.71 :
G/Tlt : R10.19 : r8.795 : R9.404 ----- z : R9.567: R9.578 : R9.668/ R9.993 : R10.26: R10.28: R10.25 : R10.37 : R10.?? : R10?? vs L: 8.65
====
AGS : Y3,409 : y3,210 : y3,367 -----   z : y4,157 : y4,209 : y0,000 /y0.000 : y0,000 : y0,000 : y0 17.?? :
SLV- : $15.11 : $13.19 : $14.34 -----  z : $18.74 : $18.20 : $15.11 / $16.22 : $17.40 : $17.25 :
SLW-: $15.11 : $12.42 : $16.40 -----  z: $24.78 : $27.30 : $19.32 / $21.42 : $21.15 : $20.84 :
SIL*- : $26.43 : $18.51 : $26.50 ----- z : $45.95 : $44.48 : $32.11 / $37.36 : $38.28 : $36.02 :
DBA : $22.71 : $20.61 : $20.50 -----  z : $21.98 : $19.98 : $19.97 / $20.57 : $20.29 : $19.78 :
XLE- : $76.08 : $60.32 : $61.06 -----  z : $68.60 : $70.61 : $75.32 / $74.23 : $70.99 : 69.90 :
Cop'r: $2.641 : $2.135 : $2.170 -----  z : $2.220 : $2.210 : $2.510 / $2.690 : $2.700 :
WTI- : $59.65 : $37.07 : $36.36 -----  z : $49.28 : $48.24 : $53.72 / $53.17 : $53.99 :
CRB : 224.90 : 176.27 : 168.03 -----  z : 194.26 : 186.30 : 192.51 / 193.43 : 190.93 :
Corn : 385.00: 358.00 : 353.50 -----  z : 360.25 : 336.30 : 352.00 / 362.50 : 370.75 :
Wheat 575.00: 468.50 : 474.00 -----  z : 496.25 : 402.00 : 408.00 / 420.50 : 448.00 :
Sugar 11.92c : 15.24c : 15.18C -----  z : 20.78C : 23.00c : 19.51c / 20.33c : 19.81c :
BTC : 250.00 : $433.5 : $420.0 -----  z : $680.0 : $604.5 : $948.5 / $920.0 : 1135.0 :
B/G.: 21.30% : 40.88%: 34.34% ----- z: 50.56%: 45.90%: 82.36%/ 77.42%: 84.81%: 90.20% :
====
EEM- : $39.93 : $32.19 : $34.15 ----- z : $34.69 : $37.45 : $35.01 / $37.47 : $38.48 : $38.19 : $38.01 : $39.49 : $39.81 : $39.39 :
FXI -- : $46.21 : $35.29 : $33.58 -----  z : $34.48 : $38.01 : $34.71 / $36.82 : $38.54 : $37.87 : $37.65 : $39.14 : $39.25 : $38.49 :
ShCm : 4192.9: 3519.2 : 3009.5 -----  z : 2932.5 : 3004.7 : 3103.6 / 3159.2 : 3253.4 : 3218.3 : 3212.8 : 3237.4 : 3267.9 : 3222.5 :
PHM- : $20.48 : $17.82 : $18.42 -----  z: $19.48 : $20.04 : $18.38 / $21.26 : $21.73 : $22.48 : $23.53 : $23.72 : $23.49 : $23.55 :
IYR -- : $72.49 : $75.08 : $77.91 -----  z : $82.33 : $80.64 : $76.94/ $76.97 : $80.31 : $79.64 : $76.54 : $78.20 : $77.74 : $78.49 :
IWM - : 127.50 : 112.62 : 111.12 -----  z : 115.39 : 124.21 : 134.85 / 136.19 : 138.65 : 138.65 : 135.96 : 138.46 : 134.49 : 137.48 :
XLF - : $24.89 : $23.82 : $22.70 -----  z : $22.74 : $19.30 : $23.25 / $23.65 : $24.42 : $24.97 : $24.79 : $24.45 : $23.54 : $23.73 :
XLF/S: 11.86%: 11.68% 10.97% -----  z : 10.83% V8.92%:10.31% / 10.33% 10.31%: 10.47%: 10.43%: 10.32%: 10.07%: 10% -
SPY- : 209.82 : 203.87 : 206.92: -----  z : 209.92 : 216.30 : 223.53 / 228.97 : 236.74 : 238.42 : 237.69 : 237.03 : 233.86 : 235.74 :
VIX-- : 14.02%: 18.21% 13.10%: -----  z :14.77%: 13.29%: 14.04%/ 10.58%: 11.47% 10.96%: 11.66% 11.28%: 12.96%: 12.37%:
ShPut  $06.15 : $6.670: $05.00:  -----  z : $02.85 : /Sp210: $08.30 / $20.00 : $14.95 : $13.97 : $14.10 : $13.39 : $14.78 : $13.15 Ja$240p
DXY - : 95.399 : 98.693 : 94.608 -----  z : 95.720 : $95.42 : 102.38 / 100.56 : 101.09 : 101.34 : 101.38 : 100.31 : $99.77 : 100--
H-gold: r12.30 : R10.75 : r12.93 -----  z : R14.05: R13.80 : R11.25 / R11.82: R12.26: : R12.10: R11.85: R12.27: R10?? / 11.3-14.2
=====
Gold : 1173.8 : 1060.5 : 1223.2 :  === >: 1344.9 : 1317.1 : 1151.7 / 1188.4 : 1258.3 : 1226.5 : 1201.4 : 1230.4 : 1248.5 :


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 03 April 2017 - 11:06 PM

Collecting Wisdom #1

Jordan Peterson and Jonathan Haidt - We all have flaws. It's how we deal with them.

Published on Apr 1, 2017

Jordan Peterson and Jonathan Haidt offer perspectives on why and how University students, and especially those in the humanities in particular, deal with diversity and shortcomings in a way that defines them as "Victims".


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#12 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 04 April 2017 - 03:07 AM

THE NEXT ATTACK?

 

Simon Parkes says he knows where and when the next attack is planned .

But he cannot reveal it, because it may land him  in jail - then he drops a big hint

 

2017-04-02 Connecting Consciousness Simon Parkes

 

After talking about the next attack, he changes the subject, and then says:

"I will not got to Leiceister on April 29th."

 

Comment:

@5:28 David Icke was born in Leicester on the 29th of April...What is the connection?
 
Other April insights?
 
Remote Viewing April 2017: Farsight Predictions


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#13 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 04 April 2017 - 04:17 AM

Chinese banks aim to stay liquid, in bank assessments

 

China Stocks / CN:ShComp ... 5-years : 2-yr : 6-mos / last: 3,222.5 - 12.3

xx

 

Chinese Renminbi / US$ in CNY ... 5-years : 2-yr : 6-mos / last: 6.8871

xx

 

BOC / Bank of China ... 5-years - quote in HK$ ... 5-years : 2-yr : 6-mos / last:

xx

 

China injects $89.9B of liquidity in March... banks race to stay Liquid ( Apr 4th, World Business, Malaya Business Insight)

 

"China's Central bank injected 619bn yuan ($89,9bn)... up nearly 50% from the previous month"

+ Follows a 35% drop in injectons in March

+ Liquidity s now described as "relatively high", despite normally high demands at the end of the March quarter

+ Some banks have been hoarding cash ahead of announced inspections by the PBOC

 

"... the ructions in the money-market and an explosion in inter-bank borrowings show how addicted they (the Chinese banks) are to risky methods of funding and investments"

+ the current inspection will look at off-balance sheet products for the first time

+ Wealth Management Products (WMP's) have shown explosive growth in recent years

+ Short term rates ahead of the quarter end have tripled to 9 percent

+ Chinese banks extended a record 12.65 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) of loans in 2016

+ BofC economist Qui said: "The Chinese model wherein banks finance longer term risky investments with short term money is unsustainable"

+ Another banker at Northwest securities said: banks need to shrink the WMP portfolios

... but "no bank is willing to retreat voluntarily", so instead they are borrowing from each other short term to maintain portfolios

+ There are anecdotal reports that banks are beginning to cutback on their high risk portfolios


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#14 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 04 April 2017 - 10:33 AM

Filipinos are telling themselves there is NO Property Bubble - but look at this:

 

80% Balloons?  Gasp!

And I worry about M-Bay

 

I guess the primary market of selling at 10% or 20% spread over 48 months (if 5mn pesos then only need to pay 10k pesos monthly) seems like an interesting option for a lot of buyers. Not sure if they need to apply for the 80% balloon payment immediately or whether this is done a few months prior to the completion (40th month onwards?).

 

Are there any consequences for buyers who walk away during the 48months if they can't resell their contract to sale? Treat the purchase as a 4-year call option. The disconnect in prices between primary and secondary is very significant to ignore.


Another issue I have with the primary sales market is that their congratulations sellout messages followed by price hike...

 

Here's the very big problem with Big Balloons: Banks are getting more cautious, and most are saying that a 60% Loan is the most they are willing to entertain, unless the borrower has excellent credit.  So the big crunch is going to come when the buyer discovers in 2-3-4 years time, that he cannot finance the entire balloon, and needs to find maybe 20% or more of the price to make that last payment. He may then try to sell on his contract, and find no buyers - and have to surrender the contract back to the developer - ie walkaway from his "call" option.  Up until now, I don't think developers have chased the defaulting buyers for more money - but that may change in the future if developers lose money on these deals

 

The buyer default risk is not going to hit the more conservative developers like Ayala very hard, because they are now structuring their sales with 60% or smaller balloons.  Some of the other developers like Megaworld, SM, or Century may prefer to make the (partial?) sale now and get the sale on their books, and then worry about the potential default risk later.

 

Until now, developers have been able offload most of the flats that they get back through buyer default at a higher price - so they may now be complacent about the risk. the problem is, as THE GAP between High prices and Lower rents gets bigger and bigger, it will be much harder for developers to offload those defaulted units at a price that keeps them whole.

 

I am beginning to think that the BIGGEST BUST will come in the Manila bay area (and maybe small pockets like Century city.)

 

In Manila Bay, I think you will find a oonjunction of these three negative factors:

Huge incoming supply, lower quality developers offering aggressive finance, and (maybe) low quality buyers availing big balloons.

 

The Supply increases for M-Bay are pretty shocking:

-

UNITS---- : --Stock-- : Estimated completions--------- : Next3yr : + Pct. :
Location: End 2016 : -2017- + pct.  : -2018 : -2019 : End2019
BGC / Fort  : 24,275 // 8,566: +35.3% : 3,858 : 3,022 /  39,721 : + 63.6%
Makati CBD: 21,633 // 4,784: +22.1% : 1,072 : 0,598 /  28,087 : + 29.8%
Ortigas -----: 16,250 // 1,489: +9.16% : 0,782 : 0,570 /  19,091 : + 17.5%
Manila Bay:   8,864 // 5,507: +62.1% : 8,531 : 2,614 /  25,516 : + 188.%
Rockwell--- :   4,159 // 0,346: +8.32% : 0,492 : 0,269 /    5,266 : + 26.6%
=========
Top5 Areas : 75,181 / 20,694: +27.5%: 14,735: 7,073/ 117,683: + 56.5%
Other GrM. : 15,603 //  2,198: +14.1%:   0,824: 0,632 / 19,257 : + 23.4%
Gtr. Manila : 90,784 / 22,890: +25.2%: 15,559: 7,705/ 136,940: + 50.0%

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#15 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 05 April 2017 - 10:36 PM

Advertisers "shooting themselves in the foot"

 

Will THIS be the end of "diversity programming"?

 

PEPSI PULLS KENDALL JENNER AD AFTER OUTCRY...

 

Pepsi

/ 1 /

Pepsi, Kendall Jenner protest ad called 'tone deaf'

 

"about letting go, and following your passions"

Right.  More like behaving like a brain-dead Zombie.

The social media react to the dumb ad, shows Pepsi's audience is smarter than they think

 

/ 2 /

#Pepsi Is About To Have A Very Bad Day | Mike Cernovich Periscope

 

I think people are now truly waking up to the manipulations in advertising.

So I started a thread about this:

> http://www.greenener...showtopic=21389


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#16 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 06 April 2017 - 03:01 AM

Major Revelations about to start ?

 

Keep eyes on Antarctica and Wikileaks

 

In anticipation, I changed the logo today - to this:

GEI-2017_zpsk5hhsgyl.jpg

 

RDS said this during a visit to Norway

 

EX CIA Robert David Steele In Oslo - McCain, Graham, Rubio and Schumer Are All Being Blackmailed

 

Wikileaks "destroyed Hillary Clinton and the Democratic party"

Now it will destroy the GOP

Videos showing senior politicians having sex with children will be the next big thing, says RDS

- at 42 minutes into this interview

 

ROBERT DAVID STEELE NORWAY INTERVIEW " CLINTON FOUNDATION BIGGEST ORGANIZED CRIME FAMILY I KNOW OF "


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#17 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 06 April 2017 - 12:11 PM

KITCO Articles

 

PRECIOUS-Gold dips on profit taking, firm dollar ahead of U.S. data Reuters 07:26AM

=== ===
 
Spot gold fell 0.24 percent to $1,251.81 per ounce by 1140 GMT, retreating from an overnight peak of $1,258.96.
    U.S. gold futures were up 0.4 percent at $1,253.50, after climbing as much as 1 percent to $1,260.80 earlier in the
day.
    "The slight uptick in the dollar and some profit taking after the move late yesterday is probably bringing in that bit
of weakness," said Jonathan Butler, commodities analyst at Mitsubishi in London.
    The markets were waiting for U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday, which will likely be in line with expectations, he
added. "So we may stay around this $1,250 to $1,260 level for some time, just as we have done since the end of March."   
    Investors were cautious ahead of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping due
later on Thursday, the first between the world's two most powerful leaders.
. . .
“Over recent weeks gold prices have approached the 200-day moving average which comes in just below USD 1,260 per ounce. The momentum is growing and therefore it is likely that prices will break through this level in the near-term. As a result, gold prices could quickly move up towards USD 1,275 per ounce.  However, we don’t expect an aggressive rally in prices but a modest rise for the remainder of the year,” she said.

Boele reiterated her firm’s forecast for gold to end 2017 around $1,300 an ounce, and $1,400 an ounce by the end of 2018. She said that gold’s rally this year will be kept in check because of modestly higher U.S. bond yields and resilient strength in the U.S. dollar. At current prices, the rally to $1,300 represents another 4% move by the end of the year.

“It is very unlikely for gold prices to rally in an environment of a modest rise in the US dollar. Therefore, the upside in gold prices in the coming quarters is limited in our view. Moreover, we expect slightly more hikes in the Fed funds target rate than what markets have priced in. This should weigh on gold prices as well,” she said.
. . .

Among the factors UBS cited for scaling back its price forecast some were a slower-than-expected pickup in gold interest during the first quarter, a faster pace of Federal Reserve tightening than previously expected, and potential for higher bond yields in the euro zone, especially as political uncertainty clears and data continue to improve.

The bank’s new 2017 forecast of $1,300 is down from $1,350 previously. UBS trimmed its 2018 outlook to an average of $1,325 from $1,450 previously.

UBS commented that moves in gold over the past 15 months have hinged on developments in the U.S.

“We continue to hold the view that the correction in gold, as optimism on the U.S. economy and fiscal hopes emerged after the U.S. elections, was overdone as the path of fiscal policy remains uncertain,” UBS said. “Downside risks to U.S. yields as a result of fiscal disappointment would be a bullish catalyst for gold, in our view.”

The bank says global physical demand for gold has been weak, which has been factored into the market. This could mean a potential upside surprise for gold, with UBS suggesting that demand may be better than the market seems to expect.

Strategists described sentiment toward gold as positive but suggested conviction and participation have been limited, with market expectations tending to anticipate a broad range although with an upside bias.

“Gold's resilience has been encouraging, and we think the relatively orderly uptrend thus far helps to strengthen underlying sentiment,” UBS said. “Nevertheless, we would expect that a more convincing break beyond $1,250/$1,260 is probably needed to encourage stronger participation
 
( Despite the bullish noises here, I am downsizing my Gold position these last few days and today)

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#18 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 06 April 2017 - 11:13 PM

You will not see these "Hate Facts" in the Mainstream Media

The Odds against traditional American values
Jews on Supreme Court : 3.5 /8 = 43.8%
Jews as a % of US Population----- : 2.6%
Multiple of "Fair share" -------- : 16.8X
Result: They usually vote together, with Justice Kennedy = Creeping socialism, multicuralism favored, social agenda

"Something had to be done!"; Trump was elected

Gorsuch heads for confirmation as Senate tears up own rules

 WASHINGTON (AP) -- In a confrontation that could reshape the Supreme Court for generations, Republicans tore up the Senate's voting rules Thursday to allow Trump nominee Neil Gorsuch to ascend to the high court over furious Democratic objections.

Democrats denounced the GOP's use of what both sides dubbed the "nuclear option" to put Gorsuch on the court, calling it an epic power grab that would further corrode politics in Congress, the courts and the nation. Many Republicans bemoaned reaching that point, too, but they blamed Democrats for pushing them to it.

"We will sadly point to today as a turning point in the history of the Senate and the Supreme Court," declared Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.

"This is going to be a chapter, a monumental event in the history of the Senate, not for the better but for the worse," warned Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a senior Republican.

A final confirmation vote on Gorsuch is expected Friday, and he should be sworn in soon to hear the final cases of the term. He was nominated by President Donald Trump shortly after the January inauguration.

The Senate change, affecting how many votes a nominee needs for confirmation, will apply to all future Supreme Court candidates, likely ensuring more ideological justices chosen with no need for consultation with the minority party. Trump himself predicted to reporters aboard Air Force One that "there could be as many as four" Supreme Court vacancies for him to fill during his administration.

"In fact, under a certain scenario, there could even be more than that," Trump said. There is no way to know how many there will be, if any, but several justices are quite elderly.
==
> more: http://hosted.ap.org...-04-06-17-43-55


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#19 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 07 April 2017 - 12:13 AM

Syria : has Trump surrendered to the Neocons ?

 

The Rush to war (on faked or accidental gasing) : "does not smell right"

 

Putin opposes, Netanyahu favors this wild action

 

Comments from Mike Rivero - on WhatReallyHappened

Hr1

"If he goes into Syria, Trump will make himself a one-term President"

 

 

Trump Has Surrendered. Will Putin Be The Next To Surrender? (4/6/2017)

 

The Washington Establishment has reasserted control. First Flynn and now Bannon. All that are left in the Trump administration are the Zionists and the crazed generals who want war with Russia, China, Iran, Syria, and North Korea.

There is no one in the White House to stop them.

Kiss good-bye normalized relations with Russia.

The Syrian conflict is set to be reopened. That is the point of the chemical attack blamed by Washington on Syria despite the absence of any evidence. It is completely obvious that the chemical attack is a Washington orchestrated event. According to reports US Secretary of State Tillerson has warned Russia that steps are underway to remove Syrian president Assad. Trump agrees.

The removal of Assad allows Washington to impose another Washington puppet on Muslim peoples, to remove another Arab government with an independent policy from Washington, to remove another government that is opposed to Israel’s theft of Palestine, and for Exxon’s Tillerson and the neoconservative hegemonists to cut Russian natural gas off from Europe with a US controlled gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe via Syria.

By ignoring all of these US advantages, the Russian government dithered in completing the liberation of Syria from Washington-backed ISIS. The Russians dithered, because they had totally unrealistic hopes of achieving a partnership with Washington via a joint effort against terrorism.

This was a ridiculous idea as terrorism is Washington’s weapon...


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#20 DrBubb

DrBubb

    Tri-Millennium Guru

  • Super Admins
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 87,905 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hong Kong & London
  • Interests:Trading and investing in stocks and commodities. Writing articles on related subjects, while building this website. I am interested in creating ways for communities

Posted 07 April 2017 - 02:06 AM

Dear God!

Say a prayer - the guy is in the grip of Globalist war hawks.

God help us!

TRUMP LAUNCHES 50+ MISSILES AIMED AT SYRIA


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix




1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users