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Baltimore thread: A "Renter's City"


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 20 February 2017 - 04:19 AM

Baltimore thread

Stories related to Property in the "Renter's City"

 

April 18, 2016by Bryan Ives

Baltimore, Maryland Rental Property Trends for 2016

 

Baltimore-header-300x140.jpg

 

The rental property market all along the Eastern Seaboard endured a few rough years that led up to 2015. Things continued to pick up early in the year when RealtyTrac ranked Baltimore third for the highest potential rental returns in the United States. Only two Georgia counties ranked higher in the entire country.

The outlook for 2016 remains positive because of high occupancy rates, but that growth in rental prices depends upon a continued growth in the employment rate. With that in mind, it might be helpful to review the past few years in order to make some predictions for the future.

 

Baltimore: A Renter’s City

The latest figures from the U.S. Census Bureau illustrates that Baltimore is a renter’s city. The homeownership rate in the City of Baltimore was less than 50 percent. At the same time, the Maryland homeownership rate is 67 percent. It’s clear that the demand for rental housing is definitely high inside the city. Still, lower incomes in Baltimore may depress actual rental prices somewhat.

While the average family income in the state is over $73,000, average family income in Baltimore is only about $41,000. Also, the Census reported that almost a quarter of the city lived below the poverty level, and the state average for people living below the poverty line is less than 10 percent.

Rent Growth May Lag Behind Job Growth

 

In the first quarter of 2015, Axiometrics reported that Baltimore continued to enjoy a rental property occupancy rate of just about 95 percent, which is considered full occupancy. They also reported that rental prices continued to climb, but the growth in prices fell off from a high in December of 2014. This was true even though the job market continued to improve.

 

They also predicted that price growth would begin to pick up steam with continued job growth, greater security, and an increased demand for rental units. They also contrasted the Baltimore market to Silver Spring, another Maryland city. In Silver Spring, sluggish job numbers and an increasing supply of rental properties may push rental rates downward.

 

Rental Occupancy Rates Remain Fairly High

In June of 2015, occupancy rates reached 95.4 percent. This is very close to a three-year high. Along the Northeast Corridor metro areas, only New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, DC, and Boston enjoyed higher occupancy rates.

 

In addition the supply of rental units has been steadily decreasing in this city for the past few years.

Consider the trend since 2013 for the identified supply of rental properties:

2013: 3,450
2014: 2,607
2015: 2,500
Estimated for 2016: 1,708

 

Contrast that decrease in supply and with an increased job growth rate in 2013, 2014, and 2015 of 1.4, 1.2, and 1.9 percent. Over 42,000 new jobs have been created in Baltimore in the past two years. Meanwhile, the city’s boom in construction peaked in 2013, so fewer new units have been put on the market. This decrease in supply and increase in job growth is a formula for increased occupancy rates and upward pressure on rental prices.

Baltimore, Maryland Rental Property Predictions for 2016

Baltimore’s job growth keeps climbing, but it still hasn’t caught up with the national average of 2.2 percent. The only true fly in the ointment is the fact that incomes inside Baltimore are relatively low. Hopefully, continued job growth will continue to push paychecks higher. Forecasters assume employment rates will keep climbing, and that’s what most optimism for an increase in rental prices hinges upon. At the same time, Baltimore property owners enjoy some of the highest occupancy rates along the Eastern Corridor, with many city dwellers opting for rentals over home ownership.

==

> source / More: https://www.appfolio...rends-for-2016/


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 22 March 2017 - 03:53 AM

Are the Politicians protecting the people?

 

Smugness in Baltimore

 

A former teacher, turned Leftist politician, seems to be more tolerant of crimes by Illegals,

than he is concerned for the safety of Baltimore citizens

Tucker vs lawmaker who called feds 'Nazis'

Published on Mar 21, 2017

14-year-old Md. girl is gang-raped by two older teens, one of whom is an illegal immigrant, while Baltimore reels from 10 recent homicides. Tucker takes on a Baltimore councilman who wants to make law enforcement kinder and gentler during troubled times


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 11:32 PM

Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore Lead Nation in Population Loss...

 

In Baltimore, the population dropped 6,738 to 614,664.

 

(CNSNews.com) - The counties containing Chicago, Detroit and the independent city of Baltimore were the biggest population losers in the United States from 2015 to 2016, according to data released today by the Census Bureau.

Cook County, Ill., where Chicago is the county seat, had the largest population loss of any county in the country from 2015 and 2016.

Between July 1, 2015 and July 1, 2016, Cook County lost a net of 21,324 people to hit 5,203,499, according to the Census Bureau.

Even while it was experiencing the largest net population loss of any county in the country, Cook Count was seeing an influx of migrants from foreign countries and more births than deaths.

largest_declining_counties-sc-1.jpg?itok

During the year, births outnumbered deaths in Cook County by 68,049 to 42,297, and 18,434 people moved into the country from foreign nations.

But at the same time, 66,244 residents left Cook County for other places in the United States.

Wayne County, where Detroit is the county seat, had the second largest population loss of any county in the nation; and Baltimore, Md., an independent city that the Census Bureau counts as a county, had the third largest population loss.

The general patterns in these counties were the same as in Cook County.

Wayne County lost a net of 7,696 people during the year, ending up with a population of 1,749,366. Births outnumbered deaths in the county 23,209 to 18,231, and 4,279 people moved into the county from foreign countries.

But at the same time, 17,346 people moved out of Wayne County to other places in the United States.

In Baltimore, the population dropped 6,738 to 614,664.

Births outnumbered deaths in Baltimore, 8,654 to 6,871, and 3,402 people moved into Baltimore from foreign countries. But 11,008 people moved out of Baltimore to other places in the United States.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 11:34 PM

Renters Now Rule Half of U.S. Cities
The American Dream increasingly involves a lease, not a mortgage.
by
Patrick Clark
March 23, 2017
 
Ownership down to 49% in Detroit, and 47% in Baltimore, 44% in Atlanta
 

Detroit was once known as a city where a working-class family could afford to own a home. Now it’s a city of renters.

Just 49 percent of Motor City households were homeowners in 2015, down from 55 percent in 2009 and the lowest percentage in more than 50 years. Detroit isn’t alone, of course: The rate of U.S. home ownership fell steadily for a decade as the foreclosure crisis turned millions of owners into renters and tight housing markets made it hard for renters to buy homes. Demographic shifts—millennials (finally) moving out of their parents basements, for instance, or a rising Hispanic population—further fed the renter pool.

 

Fifty-two of the 100 largest U.S. cities were majority-renter in 2015, according to U.S. Census Bureau data compiled for Bloomberg by real estate brokerage Redfin. Twenty-one of those cities have shifted to renter-domination since 2009. These include such hot housing markets as Denver and San Diego and lukewarm locales, such as Detroit and Baltimore, better known for vacant homes than residential development. 

800x-1.png

While U.S. home ownership ticked up in the second half of 2016, there are reasons to think the trend toward renting will continue. A 2015 report from the Urban Institute predicted that rentership would keep rising through 2030, thanks to demographic trends that include aging baby boomers who downsize into rentals.

 

Why Millennials Aren't Buying Real Estate Anymore

 

Eight houses can replace an Annual Income:

 

How to Replace a $70,000 a Year Salary with Real Estate Investments and Rental Property


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 11:53 PM

Betting on 24/7 Cities... is the legendary Sam Zell

 

"Sam is a visionary in that he sees when a market is over saturated way before the other "experts", economists and analysts do and he gets out at the top without screwing over investors." - source

 

"...seeing the de-suburbanization (or de-malling) of major 24/7 cities, where young people are moving into smaller apartments because most of their time is spent at work.." - source

 

"You're drawing all the young people in America to these 24/7 cities. The last thing they want to do is live in the suburbs,"

 

"Of the 18,000 units (Zell's) REIT manages in New York City, Zell estimated 45 percent are occupied by just one person.

"It's probably going to happen here in New York first," he said. "You're going to see 300-square-foot apartments, directly related to that one person wanting to live alone—and saying, 'I'll give up space for privacy.'" - source

 

Announced he was Going Coastal years ago

 

9c18102eb1dc11bbe390e59b424bcfb2_12202.j

 

Sam Zell | Equity Residential |

Sam Zell says NYC’s resi supply growth is slowing down
Equity Residential chair says banks and investors are becoming concerned about excess product

February 22, 2017

 

Real estate billionaire Sam Zell said the surge of residential real estate supply in New York City is starting to wane, but demand remains relatively high.

The Equity Residential founder and chairman told Bloomberg that people are still attracted to what he calls “24/7” cities, like New York City. He added that rent prices in the city are “flattening out” — rather than falling — and the company has focused on six core markets on the coasts.

“The surge in supply is starting to slow down as banks and investors become concerned about the impact of supply and demand,” he told Bloomberg.

In a fourth-quarter earnings call earlier this month, executives at Equity told investors the company expects revenues in New York City to fall by 1.8 percentage points in 2017. COO David Santee blamed the drop in rents on the financial services industry contracting and job growth in tech sectors stalling. The company has budgeted $4 million for concessions in New York this year.

“I think generally speaking we have been sellers in the past four or five years. But we have been sellers with a strategic objective. We wanted, in the case of Equity Residential, to concentrate on 24/7 cities,” Zell told Bloomberg. “That’s a strategy that makes sense and fits into where we see the demographics and job creation evolving.”

 

 

 

A Legacy Of Timing: What Sam Zell Has Bought And Sold In The Last ...

Feb 16, 2016 - Sam Zell has been making some noise recently, predicting a recession and announcing plans for over $9B in sales during the past year.

 

Why Sam Zell Is Betting Big On Urban Real Estate - Forbes

Jun 3, 2014
The real estate veteran talks about how societal changes have impacted the migration of people from suburbs ...

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 02 May 2017 - 06:51 AM

Baltimore Mayor Begs For FBI Help As 2017 Murders Soar To 20-Year High

2017.05.01%20-%20baltimore%201.JPG

"I’m calling on all the assistance we can possibly get because I can’t imagine going into our summer months with our crime rate where it is today, what that’s going to look like by the end of the summer.  Murder is out of control."

 

xx

/ 2 /

The Ferguson Effect: Baltimore Millennials' Worst Nightmare

 

Last week, I wrote an article titled Baltimore Millennials’ “City Life” Narrative Starts To Crack. It appears the crack in the narrative is much larger than we thought. What’s developing in Baltimore is called  the ‘Ferguson Effect’. This is a theory where the increased scrutiny of police post 2014 death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri and Trayvon Martin in Florida will lead to higher crime rates. Baltimore is turning this theory into a reality, as the city descends into chaos before the summer start. The rapid deterioration of Baltimore in 2017 has caught the linear mindset of the  millennials’ off guard, who thought gentrification was right around the corner. 

The Baltimore Sun Newspaper projects 409 homicides this year, which is a 20-yr high.

Screen-Shot-2017-05-03-at-11.43.29-AM.pn

Simultaneously, the Police Union sounds the alarm on the Baltimore City Police Department. The Union says the department is in ‘crisis’ due to an officer shortage


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 stagflation

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Posted 17 May 2017 - 01:18 AM

http://www.zerohedge...-triangle-death

 

- in edit, added by drb - excerpt of image:

Screen-Shot-2017-05-15-at-6.13.15-PM.png

worst area:

2017-05-16_13-22-05.png



#8 DrBubb

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 11:04 AM

Baltimore Transport lines

 

DOWNTOWN%2BSECTOR%2BJPEG.JPG


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#9 DrBubb

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Posted 20 May 2017 - 12:00 PM

The City Of Baltimore Is Utterly Collapsing
  • 27,406 views

 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#10 DrBubb

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Posted 22 June 2017 - 06:27 AM

Baltimore starts tearing down SEVENTEEN THOUSAND abandoned ...

www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3558273/posts?q=1&;page=21

Jun 5, 2017 -  by C19fan ...

To: Lorianne

I hate to see these old brick homes town down....Philly has a lot of row houses that are being gentrified...but you know, "gentrification" is a bad word for the BGI....it means somebody's taken initiative to actually improve the rundown homes that minorities used to own..

To: fruser1

The story is lead abatement law in MD making these houses worthless and ultimately abandoned. I thought about buying several houses in Baltimore about 12-13 years ago. They were very cheap for the return on rent. Fortunately the wife wasn’t into it. I later found it was very expensive to get a lead abatement certificate for a legal rental unit.

To: C19fan

I remember taking a cab from Towson to Johns Hopkins 30 years ago and coming down N Broadway it looked like photos of Berlin after the war

To: The Great RJ

I was in East Berlin when I was 12 years old 14 years after the end of WWII. I moved to Baltimore in the mid ‘70’s. There are differences. The people in Berlin were all white and below the County line to the Green Zone around the Inner Harbor, Fells Point and Canton, they are mostly black with some hispanics. Despite its moslems, Berlin is rebuilt. Until the inner city is de-populated, Baltimore will not be rebuilt.

To: C19fan

Baltimore City under mayor Schaefer had one of the most successful urban homesteading programs ever. Thousands of homes were renovated and put back in service. Trust the current government to forget that success.

==

..but you know, "gentrification" is a bad word for the BGI....it means ....

==

> http://www.freerepub...ts?q=1&;page=21


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#11 DrBubb

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 11:01 PM

Baltimore versus Philadelphia comparisons

Statistic--- : Philadelphia : Baltimore :
=========
No. in USA-- : --Number 6-- : Number 29-:
Peak Popul...: 2,072,000--- : 949,700-- : (1950)
Population--- : 1,526,000--- : 620,560-- : (2010)
----------------- : 1,556,000--- : 622,000-- : (2017)
Pop. Growth- : --------------- : flat, or modest
Black/White-- : 43.4/41.0% : 63.7/29.6% :
Employment- : 0,587,191-- : 0,000,000 : Dec 2007
Employment- : 0,663,295-- : 0,371,100 : May 2017
Job Growth-- :  + 13.0 % :
Students
U.Penn (PH) - : 24,800 (10,400 are undergraduates)
Drexel (PH) -- : 25,600 (15,500 undergrads)
Temple (PH) - : 39,600 (29,300 undergrads)
3Schools (PH): 90,000 (65,200)
JohnsHopkins : --------------- :  24,000 (  7,100 undergrads)

Ave.HH Inc.- : $ 41,233----- : $ 42,241----- : (2015)
Med.HomeVal.: $145,300-- : $152,400---- :
X HH income  : --   3.52 ---- : --   3.61 ---- :
Median Rent- : $ 922/ mo.  : $ 951/ mo.   :
X HH income  :   26.8%---- :    27.0% ---- :
==
Housing Units: 670,229 units : 267,727 units :
Vacancy Rate : 13.3% -------- : 18.4% -------- :
OCCUPIED   : 581,089 units : 218,465 units :
%-Population :  37.3% -------- : 35.1% -------- :

Ave. per Unit :  2.68 people-- : 2.85 people-- : Why?

===

Perhaps the lower density of people per household is because there are more

Students in  Philadelphia, with many students living alone ??

Adjusted data below tend to support this hypothesis

 

Population--- : 1,556,000--- : 622,000-- : (2017)
Less students:     90,000--- : : 24,000-- :
Pop., adjusted 1,466,000--- : 598,000-- :
OCCUPIED   : 581,089 units : 218,465 units :
Less students:     90,000--- : : 24,000-- :
Occupied,adj 491,089 units : 194,465 units :
Per Unit,adj  2.99 people-- : 3.08 people-- :


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#12 DrBubb

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Posted 02 October 2017 - 11:46 AM

Articles - Links sent to me by email
 
Recent articles on Baltimore say city pop shrinking based on US Census
ending 12 months from july 2016.

Baltimore population falls, nearing a 100-year low, U.S. Census says

 

Baltimore's population fell by more than 6,700 people in the 12 months that ended July 2016, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Thursday, as the number of people leaving the city for other parts of the United States doubled.

The decline wiped out the city's meager gains under Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, who sought to draw 10,000 families to the city. And the loss came as the city grapples with rising crime, a homicide spike, a school budget gap and the fallout from the death of Freddie Gray.

 

/ 2 /

This article which came out 2 days ago on Baltimore property. 

 

Baltimore homeowners who sold their property last year didn’t get much of a return on their investment — just $5,000 more than they paid, according to a new report from Zillow.

The return on investment for a home sold in Baltimore in 2016 was 5.4 percent — the lowest among 33 cities studied by Zillow, a real estate database company.

Sellers last year in some West Coast cities saw percentage gains more than 10 times higher than in Baltimore, as high growth in technology jobs continues to drive up their home values, sales and the general cost of living.

Oakland, Calif., topped the list with a 78 percent gain, followed by Portland, Ore., at 64.7 percent and San Jose, Calif., at 56.5 percent. The highest East Coast cities were No. 8 Philadelphia at 51.7 percent and No. 10 Boston at 49.6 percent.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix



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