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Century City, Makati - a place to watch


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#1 DrBubb

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Posted 06 September 2016 - 07:38 AM

Century City, Makati - a place to watch

 

CPG could be the stock to watch.

I think problems renting Knightsbridge, Gramercy, and other projects at Century City,

could potentially trigger a slide in resale/secondhand prices, at projects on the Fringe of the CBD

 

"It is the reason why Century Properties PH share price is not doing very well -- but they've understood it and they are going

to concentrate on the lower end of the market now as well." - see Bangkok, TH thread

 

CHART: Century Property, in Makati, PH

CPG ... All : 5-yrs : 6-mos :

CPG_zps1jy73k0k.gif

 

I see it differently.

Century has built an expensive product, in the WRONG location - they are in Makati's old "red light district"

 

knightsbridge%20res-%20map_zpskmx9wuwt.j

 

The high-paying jobs are in the CBD. To get to the CBD, residents in Century City will need to walk around Bel Air Village, the Western part.

 

Imagine it rains, what is going to happen?

Are they going to have a very long wait for cabs?  Or will they have to get wet walking around Bel Air Village,

 

Another problem is this:

The public areas of the buildings (Knightsbridge & Gramercy - not sure yet about Trump Tower),

are nice, but the flats themselves are not great.  I am told the "walls are particle board, not concrete", and so it

is very noisy for residents.

 

As a result, Knightsbridge and Gramercy are renting at under P 1000 psm, probably below expectations of owners

 

From OLX: Knightsbridge Flats for Rent
=========
P 24,000 / 27 SM = P 889 psm (F.Furn.)
P 26,000 / 27 SM = P 963 psm (F.Furn.)
P 28,000 / 30 SM = P 933 psm (F.Furn + Wifi)
P 29,000 / 30?sm = P 967 psm (F.Furn + Wifi)
Others available at P 30,000, and higher
 . .
From OLX: Gramercy Flats for Rent
=========
P 27,000 / 27 SM = P1000 psm (F.Furn.)
P 29,999 / 30 SM = P1000 psm (F.Furn.)
P 38,000 / 46 SM = P 826 psm (F.Furn.)
Other 1BR flats at P 40,000, and higher
 . .

I am seeing Flats for Sale at prices like these: (resales?)

Kn. : P 3900k/27=144k, P 4000k/27=148k, P6000k/33=181k, say P150k psm
Gr. : P 4000k/26.5=151k, P 5500k/39=141k, say P146k psm

 

P950 x12 = 11.4/ 150k = 7.6% Gross yield, which is not far from the levels Colliers reports for Makati CBD

 

If I am right, the rents will slide, or at least drift lower, and that will undermine property prices


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#2 DrBubb

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Posted 20 September 2016 - 05:09 AM

P 0.52-0.56 is a key Support Level for CPG stock

 

PH:CPG - Century Properties ... 6-mo : 2-yrs : 5-yrs : Last: P 0.52 at 2/15/2017

CPG-2yr_zpsh9kdzqht.gif

 

"If I am right, the rents will slide, or at least drift lower..."

 

RENTPAD

========

Knightsbridge:

Studios (27-28) : P 25,000; 25,500; 28,000x2; 30,000 (throw out?) : abt. P 900 -1,000 psm

1 BR -- (37-38) : P 37,000; 38,000;

 

Gramercy:

Studios (27-30) : P

1 BR --

============

 

Knightsbridge Residences Studio Condo for Rent
₱ 28,000 /Month / 27 sqm.
002-497b4061-8542-4d90-8065-6e9a6e564ad0
Cozy Studio Condo in Makati City

The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#3 DrBubb

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Posted 15 February 2017 - 08:57 AM

The reluctant property manager

.

Should I Buy Investment Condo Makati Manila Philippines?

BebotsOnly Driving to Gramercy Res - this is the journey into Makati

 

The owner of this flat in Gramercy might be better off finding a manager living closer to the actual flat.

The would-be-manager was not so keen to take this on, and it took him almost a month to visit the property, because of "the heavy traffic" going into Manila.

 

I may know someone living in the building, or next door - and a well-located manager might find the job easier

 

His INVESTMENT ADVICE is sound:

"Invest within easy walking distance to Greenbelt or Rockwell. Also look look to be close to offices were higher paid executives might work.  You want to be close to: Work, Schools, Shopping, and Entertainment. " 

("hospitals can also be important")

 

Pt.2 : at the actual property, and inside

Gramercy Residences Manila Makati Philippines Hyper Amenities Investment Property BebotsOnly

 

The Vlogger was impressed by the amenities, as was I.

 

My biggest concern with the place is the location.

The high-paying jobs, providing sufficient income to pay a reasonable rent are in Makati's main CBD.

In the rain, it may be hard to get a cab, and there would be an uncomfortable walking distance in the rain, holding an umbrella, to get to Ayala Avenue - if a tenant worked there.

 

But the view from the amenities floor, with 24/7 service is superb.  I also liked the coffee shop on the amenities floor.

At P 150 psm, the association fee is not cheap

 

Comment on Flipping:

Be VERY cautious about buying a unit from Century properties. They convinced us that it would be SO easy to flip our unit about 17 months and so we purchased a unit from Aqua Residences. Contacted them to flip unit Oct 12th and we are still no closer to getting our money back as they simply say "it seems to be hard to sell your unit". To make matters worse, we are now being told that if we want to pull out, we will get none of our money back (more than 400,000 pesos!!!!!). Something sounds VERY fishy with Century Properties, folks Mr. Adrian Sta. Catalina was just awarded "#1 sales agent" in the Century Properties office, but I wonder how many other clients he and his team have lied to. The only reason we were talked into purchasing a unit was because we were told it would be extremely easy to flip a unit. Almost 4 months later and no closer to flipping the unit. Is there no accountability in sales people being able to tell clients whatever they want in order to make a quick buck or to move up in the ranks?...

 

Pt 3

Investment Property Passive Income Philippines Gramercy Residences Condo Loft Makati BebotsOnly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOKGVrO5FNA


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#4 DrBubb

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Posted 09 April 2017 - 06:22 AM

UPDATE : CPG Stock closed Friday at P 0.50

 versus Low for Year of P 0.485

 

NEWS:

=====

Our changing Manila: Trumped before we know it?
Rappler-1 Apr 2017
If all goes on schedule, Trump Tower at Century City will become the ... is the Philippine Bank of Communications on Ayala Avenue in Makati.
 
Century Properties, Mitsubishi break ground on Forbes Media Tower
Rappler-3 Feb 2016
The Forbes Media Tower project will be undertaken by Century City ... developments in recent years with the introduction of Century City Mall, the ... Centuria Medical Makati, the Philippines' largest outpatient medical facility.
= = =
Century City Development Corporation (CCDC), a subsidiary of Century Properties Group, Inc. (CPGI) and Mitsubishi Corporation (Mitsubishi), one of Japan’s oldest leading conglomerates, have signed a joint venture agreement to develop the world’s first Forbes Media Tower, a 35-storey office building that will soon rise at Century City, Makati, Philippines.

Under the agreement, both parties will develop, lease out and maintain Forbes Media Tower through Century City Development II Corporation (CCDCII), of which CCDC and Mitsubishi have 60% and 40% ownership, respectively.

CCDCII shall finance the projected Php4.5 billion total project cost through Php 2.3 billion of equity from CCDC and Mitsubishi, and a ten year Php2.2 billion senior loan granted by the Bank of Philippine Islands. BPI has approved the loan on the basis of the project’s strong financial viability amidst the rapidly growing office space sector and its confidence in the combined strength and experience of Century and Mitsubishi.
. . .
Forbes Media Tower is scheduled for completion in 2019. It will have a total gross floor area with parking of approximately 95,000 square meters. Net leasable area will be over 50,000 square meters.

As the world’s first Forbes-branded commercial building, it is designed to serve the world’s business leaders by providing an environment to conduct business with premium amenities. Forbes Media Tower is the last parcel of land to be developed within Century City, the 3.4 hectare integrated mixed-use complex of premium residential high-rises such as the Gramercy, Knightsbridge, Milano Residences, Trump Tower, and Century Spire, the lifestyle center Century City Mall, and the outpatient medical center Centuria Medical Makati.

Century Properties’ commercial portfolio will total over 190,000 square meters within the next four years. This includes the five-level and 50,000-square meter Century City Mall and the 28-storey Centuria, which has both for sale and for lease medical IT units. Forbes Media Tower is one of the three Class A commercial buildings that Century expects to add to its portfolio by 2019.
 
(From SSC):
post_new.gif April 7th, 2017, 02:54 AM     #343 queetz@home
Quote:
Originally Posted by trimalet viewpost.gif
Do you think such a building can be finished in one year and half??
It is still promised for 2018.

I wonder if they are purposely slowing down construction so buyers and would be buyers won't realize the inevitable bait and switch that Century Properties are so known for. Because as the building progresses, the inevitable downgrade would be more evident. If its still below the ground, people will still believe the rendering...

 . . .

14677302_1804514456430739_24318916063374

post_old.gif Today, 05:06 AM

    #344 Jose Mari
 
I was wondering for a while if the reason behind the delay was because it formed a single contiguous L-shaped excavation with Forbes Media Tower around a corner of Centuria Medical, and that if it was dangerous to proceed with the construction on the corner end until FMT's basement levels have been filled out. By that time it would've added adequate support for Centuria and they could then safely proceed with the more extensive underground levels of the Spire. I dunno, Centuria looks to me to be sitting on a precarious spot with those buildings too close in proximity so that it's literally standing on the edge of that hole.

I mean look at that corner of Centuria from this angle from above. biggrin.gif This shot was taken early in FMT's excavation. Remember a part of Grand Hyatt's excavation collapsing at one point? MAYBE it's that kind of accident they were trying to avoid?

===


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#5 DrBubb

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Posted 09 April 2017 - 07:23 AM

TRUMP Tower - Crazy prices (these seem to be from the developer):

 

Rising at 250 meters above ground, the 56-story building is designed by award-winning international architectural firm Broadway Malyan.
Enclosed in glass and steel, the tower will feature a “peeled façade” design and spire with the top and bottom corners that appear to be peeling off the structure. It’s a dramatic architectural marvel of steel and glass. Its curtain wall façade maximizes spectacular panoramic views of the city.
The façade’s function is environmentally responsive to light shelves and shading systems designed to react to the building’s orientation in relation to the sun’s path.
“It’s really just an iconic, modern building, very tall, very chic, something that really symbolizes everything that a Trump project means,” said Eric.

 

 

Rush For Sale! Trump Tower Manila Ready For Occupancy in Makati

 

> https://www.olx.ph/i...ml?h=616ed9777e

==============

Size- SqM : Level : List-Pr : Cash-Pr : Per-SqM : Cash-% :

1BR 94.58 : 20 /Fl: P29.01M : P26.03M : P275.2k : -10.37% :
1BR 121.1 : 4th/Fl: P33.68M : P30.20M : P249.3k : -10.33% :
2BR 150.1 : 28 /Fl: P48.57M : P43.55M : P283.4k : -10.33% :
3BR 259.4 : 31 /Fl: P98.31M : P88.15M : P340.8k : -10.33% :
1BR 98.24 : 41 /Fl. P33.62M : P30.15M : P306.9k : -10.33% :
2BR 150.6 : 41 /Fl. P50.64M : P45.41M : P301.5k : -10.33% :

Unit Type: 1Bedroom / Total Area: 94.580sqm
Floor Level: 20th
TCP:P29,009,057 : SPOT CASH: P26,033,949

Unit Type: 3Bedroom Premiere / Total Area: 259.430sqm
Floor Level: 31st
TCP: P98,310,316 : SPOT CASH: P88,151,693

 

(compare):

The Gramercy Residences - Loft Condo for Sale in Makati City

blank_10x7.gif

 

http://www.phrealty..../blank_10x7.gif

₱ 7,600,000 / 47 sqm = P 161.7k
 

Floor number : 18th floor / 1 Bedroom LOft TYpe
Deliverables : Fully Furnished

(Completed : 2007 - 10 years ago)

The Gramercy Residences is the Philippines' first fully-furnished, fully-serviced, hyper-amenitized and fully-technologized condominium - a New York-inspired luxury tower of unmatched grace and elegance. It rises a magnificent 71 stories into the sky.

 

HYPER-AMENITIES :
ULTRA Connectivity, The Spa Reception, Sensational Signature Restaurants
Fitness Center, Director’s Club, Sun Deck
 


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#6 DrBubb

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Posted 16 April 2017 - 03:29 AM

(Released quietly, reported on Easter Sunday):

 

Century Properties profit declines, sets P6-B capex to diversify (Manila Bulletin, B-3)

 

Profit dropped to P 726.9 million, about half of the P 1.53 billion earned n 2015, because of fewer condominium projects launched

 

+ Revenues declined 28.9% to P7.38 bn, but leasing revenues were up 8% to P 337.9 million

+ Real Estate sales dropped by 35.8% from P7.75bn to P4.87 bn - thanks to less new product launches

+ In the last three years, CPG has focused on completions of high rises, and collections

+ It plans to become a more diversified, multi-platform company (ie move beyond highrises)

+ "It began streamlining its business and laying foundations for allied business segments as early as 2014"

+ "In 2016, the firm turned cash flow positive for the first time since its initial public offering"

+ Net cash provided by operations improved by P1,26 billion in 2016 from 2015

+ Cash balance of P3.34 billion at year-end 2016

========

 

The report makes it sound like real improvements are being made to get past negative cash flow issues that have plagued the company for years.  I would like to study the financials when they are available.

 

Like most property developers, CPG recognizes, its Sales and its Income when it inks a sales contract.  It then needs to collect the installment payments that are called for in the contracts.  During the collection phase, profits drop, because they were reported upfront.  With this process in mind, I would expect profits to continue to slide, until they can grow their other, non-high-rise line(s) of business. 

 

An careful examination of the financials when they are available, may reveal whether or not they are having some collection problems.

 

Meantime, they are not giving up on condos, just slowing down in that area:

"For 2017, we plan to spend P 5 billion in our condominium projects and an additional P 1billon in lasing assets,"

Last April 1, the company unveiled their first affordable housing project, PHirst Park Homes project, catering to first time buyers.  Within this year, it wlll launch its first major leisure and tourism project.


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#7 DrBubb

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Posted 21 April 2017 - 12:10 AM

Reboot underway?

 

Century Properties enters mass-housing market with PHirst Park Homes in 2017

April 16, 2017

 

LISTED real-estate developer Century Properties Group (CPG) Inc. recently entered the affordable-housing category with the introduction of its PHirst Park Homes.

“It is a premium brand within the affordable-housing category that celebrates the very important milestone of first-time home ownership. More important, it espouses pride of ownership,” Marco R. Antonio, CPG chief operating officer and managing director of PHirst Park Homes, said in a press statement.

“PHirst Park Homes raises the bar of what affordable housing is and should be in the Philippines. We are pushing the envelope to make beautiful, well-designed homes attainable to a wider market—legacy homes that the next generation will enjoy,” Antonio said.

CPG has formed a partnership with Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi Corp. for the project. It is slated to launch a series of housing communities, starting off in the second quarter of 2017 with a 26-hectare community in Tanza, Cavite.

beacon.gif?cid=45955&aid=87418&sid=1665&

Antonio said the entry of PHirst Park Homes was CPG’s response to help address the country’s serious housing backlog while elevating the standards in its category at very competitive price points. At present, the government is only constructing 200,000 homes per year for socialized housing as the housing sector only gets a share that is less than 1 percent of the national budget

==

> http://www.businessm...-homes-in-2017/


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix

#8 DrBubb

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Posted 21 May 2017 - 06:57 AM

Rumors about Stratford Tower

 

This building is said to be about 50%, but construction has stopped (apparently)

 

Century is said to be offering it for sale, at some billions of Pesos.

The question is: Why?

Are there issues with buyers?  With lenders?

 

Does anyone have any facts to offer?


The market is "bipolar", swinging back and forth from a focus on Inflation to Deflation. Bet on swings; and stay flexible. What are bipolar markets? See: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-Manix



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