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I vote we scrap the gold trading thread and just pin goldfingers thread. It was his thread in the first place and was then messed about with. Just call it the gold thread. Its not rocket science is it? Im sure goldfinger wont mind people expressing thier views on trading it.

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:lol:

 

We must do one for silver as well - how we all laughed at his prediction of $6.60!!! Then I nearly s##t myself when kitco decided to 'comply'!

I remember that day, the kitco chart dropped down to $6 for around half an hour, I needed a change of underwear too :lol:

 

On a more serious note I think we are going to be on for an explosive rally in gold over the coming weeks, which is going to surprise even the bulls. There is lots of talk of pullbacks which is usually a good sign, I almost feel it is now the contrarian view point. The smackdowns appear to be losing strength and all the talk about desperation in the cartels deliveries look promising.

 

The inverse head and shoulders pattern has broken out, retested and moved on to higher ground on good volume. Are we going to experience a repeat of October 2007 or better?

 

Pixel8rsLines-2.jpg

 

 

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Interesting post from over at GIM: http://goldismoney.info/forums/showpost.ph...postcount=30742

I have identified these 10 characteristics of fraudulent gold writers. These are their tricks of the trade:

 

1. Focus on trading, and NOT investing. Genuine PHYSICAL gold advocates tell clients to be right and sit tight. Frauds refer to "being nimble", or "caution advised", and imply you should panic and sell your physical gold on every whim. That's nonsensical to extreme.

Zz, such a coincidence! How did this thread get its name?

 

2. Focus only on the short-term. If the short term is perpetually bearish there's NEVER a good time to buy gold, right? Mission accomplished if you are anti-gold. You can proclaim long term bullishness while sabotaging all efforts to get on board.

Especially the 2nd point reminds me of someone on here who always wants to buy "cheap"(!) USD and who always waits for lower prices in gold short term. No names, please! ;)

 

3. Never admit the connection between hyperinflationary Fed monetary policy and the gold consequences. If you admit trillions of dollars are being printed out of thin air then the sky's the limit for gold.

THEY would never allow it, right? :lol:

 

4. Deliberately use word bombs to instill terror in potential gold buyers. "Stratospheric", "overblown", "overheated", "frothy", and "uncharted waters" are all words designed to scare off potential gold investors.

 

5. Price targets hundreds of dollars lower than the current price. It sobers up readers, and makes them gulp. Who wants to buy something that might fall 30% before the year is over?

Oops. Another poster comes to mind. No names please! There are also some better known people out there with agenda no. 5.

 

6. Ignore evidence of ALL market manipulations, including gold. It is intellectual fraud to act as if nothing could possibly manipulate a market, when there's so much evidence to the contrary. I call this Pollyanna fraud. Every government statistic and proclamation is proclaimed truthful.

 

7. Ridicule and label gold suppression advocates. Think Michael Dukakis when he rode around in an army tank with a helmet 3 sizes too big. That's the takeaway image they want to convey. The words "conspiracy", and "theory" are deliberate misnomers designed to marginalize.

Again, any bells ringing? No names please!

 

8. Never engage in debates on the information available about gold suppression. A fraud twists the subject, refuses to debate, and injects false premises and false allegations as to what GATA is really saying.

 

9. Never reveal personal track records for the gold advice being given. Even if many of their readers eventually wise up to the lame gold advice there are always more readers coming along to get suckered for a while.

Interesting point. Those posters who have gold $200 as a target, regularly short silver, or never buy gold because they want to load up cheap Dollars - what's your track record please? :)

 

10. Imply GATA is outside of mainstream gold thinking, therefore irrelevant. In today's turbulent economy it's MAINSTREAM reporting, not GATA, that isn't representing the public's interest. The growing discontent for mainstream media belies the smearing of news sources that report factual information. A fraud pretends factual information.

Interesting list, isn't it? Finally, we have some stereotypes for the 'other side'. :lol:

 

OK, please do take this with a small pinch of salt.

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Especially the 2nd point reminds me of someone on here who always wants to buy "cheap"(!) USD and who always waits for lower prices in gold short term. No names, please! ;)

Well, I do not wait for lower gold prices. I have a very good core position in gold.... if I didn't, I would buy irrespective of the gold price... a hundred dollars here or there is irrelevant if you do not have a solid position. I have consistently repeated this time and again. Comprendo? :)

 

I wait for lower silver prices which I think are very resaonable to expect.

 

Interesting point. Those posters who have gold $200 as a target, regularly short silver, or never buy gold because they want to load up cheap Dollars - what's your track record please? :)

 

Interesting list, isn't it? Finally, we have some stereotypes for the 'other side'. :lol:

 

Cheap dollars? I am looking to buy some cheap dollars [with another peripheral currency that is strengthening at the moment]. I have already bought Yen when it was cheaper than now [shows something of a good track record I think]. This is to hedge against a reversal in the market which I think is quite likely at some point. No hidden agenda here but a clear cut purpose based on macro-economics and market phenomonology.

 

For myself, I am very overweight in silver and want to SWAP TO GOLD before the deflationary episode hits the market. Once again, I have clearly explained the strategy.... nothing untoward, no hidden agenda. no conspiracy, no fear... just a common sense hedging with the goal to accumulate gold. Period.

 

Avoid stereotypes.

 

OK, please do take this with a small pinch of salt

The puritanical approach does get a bit tedious.

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I wait for lower silver prices which I think are very resaonable to expect.

 

 

Cheap dollars? I am looking to buy some cheap dollars [with another peripheral currency that is strengthening at the moment]. I have already bought Yen when it was cheaper than now [shows something of a good track record I think]. This is to hedge against a reversal in the market which I think is quite likely at some point. No hidden agenda here but a clear cut purpose based on macro-economics and market phenomonology.

 

For myself, I am very overweight in silver and want to SWAP TO GOLD before the deflationary episode hits the market. Once again, I have clearly explained the strategy.... nothing untoward, no hidden agenda. no conspiracy, no fear... just a common sense hedging with the goal to accumulate gold. Period.

 

Avoid stereotypes.

 

 

The puritanical approach does get a bit tedious.

 

With very little evidence and no proof whatsoever, I have feeling in 'me water' that £10 oz silver will be talked about in a few years much as the Mongols were after their European tour of the 13th C. Ok, perhaps not quite as much but I like to mention the Mongols wherever possible.

 

Don't knock the Puritans - after all without em, who would have founded the USA? Hmm... OK, let's knock em :lol:

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With very little evidence and no proof whatsoever, I have feeling in 'me water' that £10 oz silver will be talked about in a few years much as the Mongols were after their European tour of the 13th C. Ok, perhaps not quite as much but I like to mention the Mongols wherever possible.

 

Don't knock the Puritans - after all without em, who would have founded the USA? Hmm... OK, let's knock em :lol:

As I said, it is all about hedging against uncertainty [in short term silver prices]. :)

 

My favorite Mongold is Kublai Khan... who kept all the kingdom's gold in his own palace and gave his population paper to use as money. Worked very well indeed and well impressed Marco Polo.... though he didn't stop to consider that this paper would be worthless in Europe.

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As I said, it is all about hedging against uncertainty [in short term silver prices]. :)

 

My favorite Mongold is Kublai Khan... who kept all the kingdom's gold in his own palace and gave his population paper to use as money. Worked very well indeed and well impressed Marco Polo.... though he didn't stop to consider that paper would be worthless in Europe.

 

 

Indeed. Read it and weep:

 

Being the first government to have any sort of paper currency, foreigners understood nothing about it, and some even considered it a form of magic. Regardless of persistent inflation after 1272 paper currency backed by limited releases of coins remained as the standard means of currency until 1345. Around 1345 rebellions, economic crisis and financial mismanagement of the paper currency destroyed the public’s confidence in the bills.[6]

 

Paper money wasn’t extremely easy to adopt because it was a foreign concept in the beginning and it wasn’t a precious metal, it was just a piece of paper. To initiate the transition from other forms of compensation to paper currency the government made refusing to accept the bill punishable by death.

 

Sounds familiar. <_<

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Around 1345 rebellions, economic crisis and financial mismanagement of the paper currency destroyed the public’s confidence in the bills.[6]

My guess is that they had the funny belief that they could print and print, and prices only ever would go down.

 

764 years later, the belief is still left in some people.

 

BTW, is 1345 when 'Kublai Khan closed the gold window?'

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Indeed. Read it and weep:

 

Being the first government to have any sort of paper currency, foreigners understood nothing about it, and some even considered it a form of magic. Regardless of persistent inflation after 1272 paper currency backed by limited releases of coins remained as the standard means of currency until 1345. Around 1345 rebellions, economic crisis and financial mismanagement of the paper currency destroyed the public’s confidence in the bills.[6]

 

Paper money wasn’t extremely easy to adopt because it was a foreign concept in the beginning and it wasn’t a precious metal, it was just a piece of paper. To initiate the transition from other forms of compensation to paper currency the government made refusing to accept the bill punishable by death.

 

Sounds familiar. <_<

The Mongols were not the first government to have any sort of paper currency.

 

It was during the Tang dynasty (608AD - 907AD) around 800AD some 400 years before Khublai Khan that the first paper money for general circulation appeared. Real paper money similar to that of today was first produced about 1000AD by the Sung dynasty but it is generally accepted that the opening of the government Bureau of Exchange in 1023AD was the real starting point for paper money as we would see its function today.

 

The Yuan dynasty that started with Khublai as Khan issued a high quantity of paper money from 1270 onwards but it was in the Ming dynasty that the government started the real money printing and caused the value of the paper note to decline between the 1370’s to 1440’s. Allegedly a 1000 cash note was equivalent to an ounce of silver in 1375 and by 1440 the rate was over a thousand 1000 cash notes per ounce (I have only ever seen this on one reference so as I say, allegedly). Depreciation of notes also occurred earlier in Chin dynasty but to lesser degree.

 

In all of these dynasties, copper, silver and gold in both various coin and weight formz was used as money alongside paper. I have never seen any reference to the users of paper notes being forced to accept them but there are writings on the notes such as “The counterfeiter shall be decapitated” along with various rewards for informing on counterfeiters in taels of silver.

 

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With very little evidence and no proof whatsoever,....

This got me thinking. I wonder if this is why gold is doing well today. No-one has any proof whatsoever about what the future will bring. I have a theory, that of hyper-deflation, but it is only a theory and could be false... as all theories could be. As opposed to theory, I think many are buying gold today due to this primeval underlying uncertainty.

 

This kind of uncertainty is corrosive of economic activity, people become less certain about the future, or should I say start thinking about the future having been rudely awakened from the perma-present and semi-comatose state of continuous consumption.

 

So yes, uncertainty dictates the buying of gold being the strongest symbol of money and the effective "prime mover" of monetary values. But this uncertainty also dictates a hedging policy as volatility is likely to dominate an uncertain market. It is likely to lurch from one side to the other, like a boat having lost it's ballast [throw overboard yesterday's mantra that "the trend is your friend" and hold on to a contrarian position].

 

But if I take the principle of uncertainty one step further then it could be I am wrong about gold. Therefore I should hedge a solid gold position with a "contrary" currency. That way, if/when the market lurches against my gold position [silver would work better here actually], I will only finally be 100% in gold when I buy at this lower price. Having bought at a low price, and only then being in 100%, there is less chance of it losing further market value.... should the market in its wisdom deem it so. There is then not so much concern and a lot less anxiety about what a sea-sick and increasingly irrational market will do. :rolleyes:

 

 

 

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This got me thinking. I wonder if this is why gold is doing well today. No-one has any proof whatsoever about what the future will bring. I have a theory, that of hyper-deflation, but it is only a theory and could be false... as all theories could be. As opposed to theory, I think many are buying gold today due to this primeval uncertainty.

 

This kind of uncertainty is corrosive of economic activity, people become less certain about the future, or should I say start thinking about the future having been rudely awakened from the perma-present and semi-comatose state of continuous consumption.

 

So yes, uncertainty dictates the buying of gold being the strongest symbol of money and the effective "prime mover" of monetary values. But this uncertainty also dictates a hedging policy as volatility is likely to dominate an uncertain market. It is likely to lurch from one side to the other, like a boat having lost it's ballast [throw overboard yesterday's mantra that "the trend is your friend" and hold on to a contrarian position].

 

But if I take the principle of uncertainty one step further then it could be I am wrong about gold. Therefore I should hedge a solid gold position with a "contrary" currency. That way, if/when the market lurches against my gold position [silver would work better here actually], I will only finally be 100% in gold when I buy at this lower price. Having bought at a low price, and only then being in 100%, there is less chance of it losing further market value.... should the market in its wisdom deem it so. There is then not so much concern and a lot less anxiety about what a sea-sick and increasingly irrational market will do. :rolleyes:

I hope I'm not 'butting in' to this conversation, but I would just like to add that I am also a great believer in 'orthogonalising' one's investments; as a hedging strategy if you will. If one does badly, some other is either unaffected (uncorrelated, orthogonal) or or does better (anti-correlated). Trouble with anti-correlated I find is that the anti- part can change over time in it's strength - e.g. oil/dow used to be anti correlated, now seemingly quite correlated.

For me, I like PMs because they are anti-correlated to the pound and I don't think that's going to change. They are also anti-correlated to my future income stream in pounds, and probably to my pension fund .

Silver and gold are both quite well correlated for short term moves at the moment, but sliver is definitely more volatile.

As a more industrial metal, silver is less 'hoarded' and is more subject to the future perceptions of the recovery. A gamble, but worth it for now IMO.

 

 

 

 

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I hope I'm not 'butting in' to this conversation, but I would just like to add that I am also a great believer in 'orthogonalising' one's investments; as a hedging strategy if you will. If one does badly, some other is either unaffected (uncorrelated, orthogonal) or or does better (anti-correlated). Trouble with anti-correlated I find is that the anti- part can change over time in it's strength - e.g. oil/dow used to be anti correlated, now seemingly quite correlated.

For me, I like PMs because they are anti-correlated to the pound and I don't think that's going to change. They are also anti-correlated to my future income stream in pounds, and probably to my pension fund .

Cool, I haven't heard that term before. Does that have more to do with orthodoxy, or with multi-sided geometrical shapes? :)

 

Silver and gold are both quite well correlated for short term moves at the moment, but sliver is definitely more volatile.

As a more industrial metal, silver is less 'hoarded' and is more subject to the future perceptions of the recovery. A gamble, but worth it for now IMO.

Yes, I think it is crucial to draw a distinction between silver and gold in today's uncertain environment. On the inflation swing/trade, silver will outperform gold... as it has been doing. Yet, when this reverses on the lurch back to the deflation side, silver will likely tank. In contrast, gold should remain relatively stable as it is being bought largely as an alternative currency and a hedge against uncertainty.

 

My strategy will be to swap silver [which I am heavily in at the moment] to gold as the peak of the inflation trade. I suspect we will get another wave up with the ratio nearing 50. If the market reverses I will not be too concerned and wait for the next wave. Call me silver surfer. On the deflation trade, if it comes, I will be loading up with cheap silver compliments of Mr Market, wait for the next inflation trade, and then swap to gold. The potential here, if the market remains undecided and volatile, and silver is used as a trading vehicle, is to be able to buy near half-priced gold.

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Cool, I haven't heard that term before. Does that have more to do with orthodoxy, or with multi-sided geometrical shapes? :)

A geometrical analogy; Orthogonal simply means 'at right angles to'; so imagine 'x' and 'y' axes.. a move down the x-axis has no effect on the y-value; they are orthogonal. For me, finding investments that can survive different crises intact is key.

 

EDIT: crises incl. draconian taxation, capital controls, inflation, deflation, recession, boom etc.

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Wish I'd seen this contest :

 

The design contest, an annual ‘beauty prize for objects’, was launched in 2007 in Italy by the architect Sandro Silvi. Every year it gives away €10 000 (£9165) in gold coins to the public voter whose choices most closely match the final results.

 

Mind you, I wouldn't have won as I think the fireplace looks awful :blink: As does the contest website IMO.

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a3w9OGzFRe3Y

Record government debt and interest rates close to zero percent are pushing gold higher for a ninth straight year, and options show investors expect the rally to continue. When prices reached all-time highs, the contract with the most open interest was the December call to buy the metal at $1,200. The contract to purchase at $1,500 an ounce was the third biggest.

 

“Gold is not at any peak,” said Martin Murenbeeld, the chief economist at Toronto-based DundeeWealth Inc., which manages $58.5 billion in mutual funds and brokerage accounts. “The world’s money supply has increased and gold hasn’t kept pace,” he said. “We’re now in a period where gold is catching up.”

Really gold positive article for Bloomberg, although Jon Nadler remains consistent.

 

Fed moves to cool inflation and the government’s revenue needs will stop gold, according to Jon Nadler, a senior analyst for Montreal metals dealer and refiner Kitco Inc.

 

“These wild calls for several-thousand-dollar gold are typical of times when gold goes into uncharted territory,” Nadler said. “The Fed will pull the interest-rate trigger and the Obama administration will, in addition, pull the tax-hike trigger before we get into any serious inflation. Once the man on the street gets in, the gold rally is likely over.”

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Interesting to take note that gold has strengthened approx 28% against both the US dollar and the Euro over the past year. Not just a "dollar story" with the longer term in view. That said, it also does not look like gold is about to go "parabolic" anytime soon. I expect to see a similiar continued steady rise over the next year... though there will no doubt be punctuating periods of volatility to both the up and downside...especially in certain currencies.

 

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Really gold positive article for Bloomberg, although Jon Nadler remains consistent.

 

“These wild calls for several-thousand-dollar gold are typical of times when gold goes into uncharted territory,” Nadler said. “The Fed will pull the interest-rate trigger and the Obama administration will, in addition, pull the tax-hike trigger before we get into any serious inflation. Once the man on the street gets in, the gold rally is likely over.”

He really is a complete muppet, we are so far from the man on the street getting in!

 

Take a look at his previous calls to see how far out he is.

 

 

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He really is a complete muppet, we are so far from the man on the street getting in!

 

Take a look at his previous calls to see how far out he is.

 

+1

 

Doubt he's noticed that 'the man on the street' is actually selling Gold for worthless paper!

 

I got another leaflet through the the door on the weekend 'Gold WANTED....', starting to sound a bit desperate IMO (I wonder why that is).

 

 

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